Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/seeds.shtml
It was recently pointed out to me that although we didn't know it at the time, the NCAA has been using basically the same procedure to seed the tournament for the past three years, since the switch from RPI to pairwise comparisons took effect. So let's recap how the decisions were made in 1996, 1997 and 1998.
Six Western teams (2 WCHA, 4 CCHA), Six Eastern teams (3 ECAC, 3 HE)
Western Qualifiers Team lPWR RPI Comps Won 1 CO College (W) 5 .615 MiLSMnWMMS 2 Michigan (C) 4 .615 LSMnWMMS 3 Lake Superior (C) 3 .605 __ MnWMMS 4 Minnesota (W) 2 .603 ____ WMMS 5 Western Mich (C) 1 .582 ______ MS 6 Mich State (C) 0 .582 ________
The comparisons would say to send WMU and MSU East, but Michigan State is the host school, and must stay in their own region, which would seem to indicate sending Minnesota and Western Michigan. But that would have left three CCHA teams in the West regional and neccessitated a potential second-round intraconference game, so Lake State and Western Michigan were sent East instead.
Eastern Qualifiers Team lPWR RPI Comps Won 1 Boston Univ (H) 5 .621 VtCkMLCrPv 2 Vermont (E) 4 .581 CkMLCrPv 3 Clarkson (E) 3 .576 __ MLCrPv 4 Mass-Lowell (H) 2 .569 ____ CrPv 5 Cornell (E) 1 .558 ______ Pv 6 Providence (H) 0 .549 ________
Okay, here's where things get tricky. The numbers say to send Cornell and Providence West. The committee did send Providence, but decided Cornell should stay East on attendance grounds. Lowell was next in line to be shipped (which we didn't realize at the time, since they happened to have a higher total PWR than Clarkson), but that left all three ECAC teams in the East, leading to a potential second round matchup. If the committee had been concerned only with avoiding those matchups, they would have kept Lowell in the East, but they gave preference to Cornell based on attendance and Clarkson based on comparisons. I still don't understand the statement that Lowell was shipped to avoid a potential second-round game with BU. Consider the three possible regionals that would have resulted from sending Cornell, Lowell, or Clarkson West along with Providence:
Team lPWR RPI Comps | Team lPWR RPI Comps
1 CO College (W) 1 .615 Mi | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .621 Vt
2 Michigan (C) 0 .615 | 2 Vermont (E) 0 .581
3 Minnesota (W) 3 .603 MSCrPv | 3 Lake Superior (C) 3 .605 WMCkML
4 Mich State (C) 2 .582 CrPv | 4 Western Mich (C) 1 .582 Ck__
5 Cornell (E) 1 .558 __ Pv | 5 Clarkson (E) 1 .576 __ ML
6 Providence (H) 0 .549 ____ | 6 Mass-Lowell (H) 1 .569 WM__
The natural brackets give no intraconference regionals games:
5W Cornell (E) 6E Mass-Lowell (H)
4W Mich State (C) 3E Lake Superior (C)
1W CO College (W) --+--2E Vermont (E)
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2W Michigan (C) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Minnesota (W) 4E Western Mich (C)
6W Providence (H) 5E Clarkson (E)
Team lPWR RPI Comps | Team lPWR RPI Comps
1 CO College (W) 1 .615 Mi | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .621 Vt
2 Michigan (C) 0 .615 | 2 Vermont (E) 0 .581
3 Minnesota (W) 3 .603 MLMSPv | 3 Lake Superior (C) 3 .605 WMCkCr
4 Mass-Lowell (H) 2 .569 MSPv | 4 Western Mich (C) 2 .582 CkCr
5 Mich State (C) 1 .582 __ Pv | 5 Clarkson (E) 1 .576 __ Cr
6 Providence (H) 0 .549 ____ | 6 Cornell (E) 0 .558 ____
This was the option the NCAA chose. The natural brackets gave one potential ECAC matchup, but with all three ECAC teams in one regional, that's unavoidable; at least it required an upset (which as we know didn't happen):
5W Mich State (C) 6E Cornell (E)
4W Mass-Lowell (H) 3E Lake Superior (C)
1W CO College (W) --+--2E Vermont (E)
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2W Michigan (C) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Minnesota (W) 4E Western Mich (C)
6W Providence (H) 5E Clarkson (E)
(It was also a game between teams who tied twice in the regular season and did not meet in the conference playoffs. The explanation of this year's seedings seems to indicate this is considered a less undesirable intraconference game.)
Team lPWR RPI Comps | Team lPWR RPI Comps 1 CO College (W) 1 .615 Mi | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .621 Vt 2 Michigan (C) 0 .615 | 2 Vermont (E) 0 .581 3 Minnesota (W) 3 .603 MSCkPv | 3 Lake Superior (C) 3 .605 MLWMCr 4 Mich State (C) 2 .582 CkPv | 4 Mass-Lowell (H) 2 .569 WMCr 5 Clarkson (E) 1 .576 __ Pv | 5 Western Mich (C) 1 .582 __ Cr 6 Providence (H) 0 .549 ____ | 6 Cornell (E) 0 .558 ____
This gives two possible second-round conference matchups (Cornell-UVM and Lowell-BU) under the natural seeding, but if you swap LSSU with UML and WMU with Cornell (thus preserving the first-round pairings) you have no intraconference games in either regional:
5W Clarkson (E) 6E Western Mich (C)
4W Mich State (C) 3E Mass-Lowell (H)
1W CO College (W) --+--2E Vermont (E)
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2W Michigan (C) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Minnesota (W) 4E Lake Superior (C)
6W Providence (H) 5E Cornell (E)
The fact that they didn't do this is one reason I was surprised by the idea of re-arranging seeds within regions in 1997.
Seven Western teams (4 WCHA, 3 CCHA), Five Eastern teams (3 ECAC, 2 HE)
Western Qualifiers
Team lPWR RPI Comps Won
1 Michigan (C) 6 .628 NDMnDUMmMSCC
2 North Dakota (W) 5 .588 MnDUMmMSCC
3 Minnesota (W) 4 .581 __ DUMmMSCC
4 Denver U (W) 2 .554 ____ MmMS__
5 Miami (C) 2 .577 ______ MSCC
6 Mich State (C) 1 .547 ________ CC
7 CO College (W) 1 .560 ____DU____
Eastern Qualifiers
Team lPWR RPI Comps Won
1 Clarkson (E) 4 .600 VtBUNHCr
2 Vermont (E) 2 .579 BUNH__
3 Boston Univ (H) 2 .577 __ NHCr
4 New Hampshire (H) 1 .591 ____ Cr
5 Cornell (E) 1 .570 Vt____
Okay, before we do anything, we have to take into account two additional factors. First, automatic byes were given to the three teams that won the regular season and tournament championships in their conferences; Michigan and NoDak were already in line for those, but BU gets the bye only for that reason. (I only just now realized that BU's automatic bye was actually snatched away from Vermont, not New Hampshire; UNH had a higher PWR because they won the comparison with Maine, who were ineligible, but UVM would actually have gotten the second bye based on comparisons.)
The second issue is the imbalance between the regions. Seven Western teams means that one intraconference matchup in the West Regional is inevitable as long as four of the five Eastern teams stay in the East. Keep that in mind later. As a more immediate concern, we have to push one of the Western teams into the East to start with. Now, this turns out to be a little weirder than I had realized. According to Adam Wodon's interview with Joe Marsh, this was the lowest-seeded team, Michigan State. However, looking at the comparisons above, I would have though Colorado College was the lowest-seeded team, since they lose the individual comparison with Michigan State. This actually has an interesting impact. Consider the starting regions if we dub MSU or CC an Eastern team:
Team lPWR RPI Comps | Team lPWR RPI Comps 1 Michigan (C) 1 .628 ND | 1 Clarkson (E) 1 .600 BU 2 North Dakota (W) 0 .588 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .577 3 Minnesota (W) 3 .581 MmCCDU | 3 New Hampshire (H) 2 .591 __CrMS 4 Miami (C) 1 .577 CC__ | 4 Vermont (E) 2 .579 NH __MS 5 CO College (W) 1 .560 __ DU | 5 Cornell (E) 2 .570 __Vt MS 6 Denver U (W) 1 .554 Mm__ | 6 Mich State (C) 0 .547 ______
When the committee goes to swap the bottom two teams in each region, it finds three-way ties which are not resolved by individual comparisons. In each case they break the tie based on Ratings Percentage Index and thus swap CC and DU with Cornell and MSU.
Team lPWR RPI Comps | Team lPWR RPI Comps 1 Michigan (C) 1 .628 ND | 1 Clarkson (E) 1 .600 BU 2 North Dakota (W) 0 .588 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .577 3 Minnesota (W) 3 .581 DUMmMS | 3 New Hampshire (H) 2 .591 __CrCC 4 Denver U (W) 2 .554 MmMS | 4 Vermont (E) 2 .579 NH __CC 5 Miami (C) 1 .577 __ MS | 5 Cornell (E) 2 .570 __Vt CC 6 Mich State (C) 0 .547 ____ | 6 CO College (W) 0 .560 ______
Now you see that, with Colorado College out of the mix, Denver is ranked above Miami, which means a strictly by-the-numbers approach sends Cornell and CC West and Miami and MSU East. Of course, this would have put all four WCHA teams in the West, which would have set up a first-round game between two of them. But still, starting with CC in the East would have been pretty likely to send Miami East instead of one of the Colorado teams.
What I think happened is that the committee decided to start with MSU as the nominal East team, knowing they wanted them in the West ultimately, and thus went with regions (a) to start with. The other posssibility is that they broke the tie between the 6th and 7th West teams based on RPI rather than the individual comparison, but this would seem to go against the usual procedure of looking at the individual comparisons. Ultimately, it doesn't matter; the committee has discretion to choose which two Western teams go East, and they decided it would be the two Colorado teams (positions 4-7 in the West were plagued by non-transitive comparisons anyway). The regions after swapping were thus:
East | West
1 Michigan (C) 1 .628 ND | 1 Clarkson (E) 1 .600 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .588 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .577
3 Minnesota (W) 3 .581 MmCrMS | 3 Vermont (E) 3 .579 NHCCDU
4 Miami (C) 2 .577 CrMS | 4 New Hampshire (H) 2 .591 CCDU
5 Cornell (E) 1 .570 __ MS | 5 CO College (W) 1 .560 __ DU
6 Mich State (C) 0 .547 ____ | 6 Denver U (W) 0 .554 ____
Then, in a move very unpopular in Minneapolis but obvious given their priorities, the committee switched the Minnesota/MSU pairing with the Miami/Cornell one to minimize the number of intraconference games at one:
5W Mich State (C) 6E Denver U (W)
4W Minnesota (W) 3E Vermont (E)
1W Michigan (C) --+--2E Boston Univ (H)
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2W North Dakota (W) --+--1E Clarkson (E)
3W Miami (C) 4E New Hampshire (H)
6W Cornell (E) 5E CO College (W)
Six Western teams (3 WCHA, 3 CCHA), Six Eastern teams (3 ECAC, 3 HE)
Let's look at this one for completeness. The reasons for this year's decisions, according to the NCAA, are explained in more detail elsewhere.
Eastern Qualifiers Team lPWR RPI Comps Won 1 Boston Univ (H) 5 .595 BCCkNHYaPn 2 Boston Coll (H) 4 .581 CkNHYaPn 3 Clarkson (E) 3 .570 __ NHYaPn 4 New Hampshire (H) 2 .559 ____ YaPn 5 Yale (E) 1 .543 ______ Pn 6 Princeton (E) 0 .518 ________
The numbers say to send Yale and Princeton West, although one would expect a desire to avoid conference matchups would result in two teams from each league staying in their region. However, the committee opted against this because it would have meant shipping out UNH, a much bigger draw, in place of Yale. Also they were not that concerned with the BC-UNH matchup in the second round, since the two did not meet in the Hockey East playoffs, and split their season series 1-1-1. (Yes, getting knocked out of the HE playoffs in the first round actually helped UNH stay in the East, although I get the feeling the attendance factor would have done the job anyway.) The fact that UNH ends up being a 5-seed, and thus needs a nominal upset to make the second round, might also have played a part. (The last statement is pure speculation on my part, while the other two reasons actually come from the NCAA.)
Western Qualifiers Team lPWR RPI Comps Won 1 Mich State (C) 5 .621 NDMiOSWiCC 2 North Dakota (W) 4 .616 MiOSWiCC 3 Michigan (C) 3 .583 __ OSWiCC 4 Ohio State (C) 2 .565 ____ WiCC 5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .560 ______ CC 6 CO College (W) 0 .548 ________
Here, once again, going by the numbers means putting three teams from the same conference in one region. This time the balance is not tilted so far in favor of ignoring conference considerations: Ohio State and Wisconsin are not that different as potential draws in Ann Arbor, and the OSU-MSU second-round game would be a rematch of the CCHA championship game, which the Spartans won after going 2-1 against Ohio State in the regular season. So the committee did think about shipping OSU in place of Wisconson, but opted against it. Why? Perhaps the Eastern decision already set the tone of favoring comparisons over conference considerations. At any rate, we learn that avoiding intraconference matchups is not as essential as we thought, and the following teams end up in each regional:
Team lPWR RPI Comps | Team lPWR RPI Comps 1 Mich State (C) 1 .621 ND | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .595 BC 2 North Dakota (W) 0 .616 | 2 Boston Coll (H) 0 .581 3 Michigan (C) 3 .583 OSYaPn | 3 Clarkson (E) 3 .570 WiNHCC 4 Ohio State (C) 2 .565 YaPn | 4 Wisconsin (W) 2 .560 NHCC 5 Yale (E) 1 .543 __ Pn | 5 New Hampshire (H) 1 .559 __ CC 6 Princeton (E) 0 .518 ____ | 6 CO College (W) 0 .548 ____
shuffling the seeds within the regionals would not change the situation: these regionals will have one potential intraconference game in each region.
5W Yale (E) 6E CO College (W)
4W Ohio State (C) 3E Clarkson (E)
1W Mich State (C) --+--2E Boston Coll (H)
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2W North Dakota (W) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E Wisconsin (W)
6W Princeton (E) 5E New Hampshire (H)