How the 1998 NCAA Brackets Were Determined

© 1998, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.1998.shtml

After half a season of speculating on what how the NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Tournament Selection Committee would apply the selection procedure to a given set of data, we now have another example of how it turned out with the real numbers. (It differs slightly from my prediction of the seedings, made the night before the selection, but agrees exactly with Keith Instone's.)

The first step is to carry out the pairwise comparisons between the 19 teams who finished the season with .500 or better records. Using the final results from the Division I Composite Schedule on US College Hockey Online, we find the following comparison results:

    Team         PWR  RPI                  Comparisons Won
 1 Mich State     18 .621   NDBUMiBCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 2 North Dakota   17 .616 __  BUMiBCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 3 Boston Univ    16 .595 ____  MiBCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 4 Michigan       15 .583 ______  BCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 5 Boston Coll    14 .581 ________  OSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 6 Ohio State     13 .565 __________  CkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 7 Clarkson       11 .570 ____________  WiNHCCYaPnNESC__NMMeMmRP
 8 Wisconsin      11 .560 ______________  NHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 9 New Hampshire  10 .559 ________________  CCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
10 CO College      9 .548 __________________  YaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
11 Yale            8 .543 ____________________  PnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
12 Princeton       7 .518 ______________________  NESCMDNMMeMmRP
13 Northeastern    5 .519 ________________________  SCMD__MeMmRP
14 St Cloud        5 .535 __________________________  MDNMMeMmRP
15 Minn-Duluth     4 .514 ____________Ck______________  NM__MmRP
16 Northern Mich   4 .528 ________________________NE____  MeMmRP
17 Maine           3 .527 ____________________________MD__  MmRP
18 Miami           1 .515 __________________________________  RP
19 RPI             0 .498 ____________________________________  
    

First of all, there are 7 automatic bids to the tournament: Boston University, Yale, Michigan State and North Dakota are in for winning the regular season tournaments in their conferences. In addition, Wisconsin, Princeton and Boston College are in for winning their conference tournaments. (Michigan State won both the tournament and regular season championships in the CCHA.) The remaining five bids are given out on the basis of the pairwise comparisons among teams. Here are the teams in the running for the five at-large bids:

   Team         lPWR RPI Comparisons Won
 1 Michigan      11 .583 OSCkNHCCNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 2 Ohio State    10 .565   CkNHCCNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 3 Clarkson       8 .570 __  NHCCNESC__NMMeMmRP
 4 New Hampshire  8 .559 ____  CCNESCMDNMMeMmRP
 5 CO College     7 .548 ______  NESCMDNMMeMmRP
    
 6 NorthEastern   5 .519 ________  SCMD__MeMmRP
 7 St Cloud       5 .535 __________  MDNMMeMmRP
 8 Minn-Duluth    4 .514 __Ck________  NM__MmRP
 9 Northern Mich  4 .528 ________NE____  MeMmRP
10 Maine          3 .527 ____________MD__  MmRP
11 Miami          1 .515 __________________  RP
12 RPI            0 .498 ____________________

With the exception of the Clarkson/UMD comparison, the top five teams beat all the others, so it's easy to see they make the tourney. Here, then, are the qualifying teams (which happen to be the top twelve in the PWR):

      West                                  East
1 Mich State     5 .621 NDMiOSWiCC | 1 Boston Univ    5 .595 BCCkNHYaPn
2 North Dakota   4 .616   MiOSWiCC | 2 Boston Coll    4 .581   CkNHYaPn
3 Michigan       3 .583 __  OSWiCC | 3 Clarkson       3 .570 __  NHYaPn
4 Ohio State     2 .565 ____  WiCC | 4 New Hampshire  2 .559 ____  YaPn
5 Wisconsin      1 .560 ______  CC | 5 Yale           1 .543 ______  Pn
6 CO College     0 .548 ________   | 6 Princeton      0 .518 ________
    

Michigan State automatically receives a first-round bye in the regionals for winning both the CCHA regular season title and the CCHA tournament. The pairwise comparisons also tell us to give BU, BC and North Dakota byes. Going by the numbers, we should swap Yale and Princeton with Wisconsin and Colorado College, giving the following regionals:

      West                                  East
1 Mich State (C)     1 .621 ND     | 1 Boston Univ (H)    1 .595 BC
2 North Dakota (W)   0 .616        | 2 Boston Coll (H)    0 .581
   
3 Michigan (C)       3 .583 OSYaPn | 3 Clarkson (E)       3 .570 WiNHCC
4 Ohio State (C)     2 .565   YaPn | 4 Wisconsin (W)      2 .560   NHCC
5 Yale (E)           1 .543 __  Pn | 5 New Hampshire (H)  1 .559 __  CC
6 Princeton (E)      0 .518 ____   | 6 CO College (W)     0 .548 ____
    

The natural seedings in both regionals lead to potential second-round intraconference games between Ohio State and Michigan State in the West and UNH and Boston University in the East. With three CCHA teams in one regional and three Hockey East teams in the other, these cannot be prevented by re-arranging teams within the regionals, but only by swapping different teams between the East and West. The two situations are slightly different:

Boston University-New Hampshire

The committee did not worry too much about this one, since the two teams had not played one another since December and split their season series 1-1-1. Also, they would have had to send New Hampshire West in place of Yale or Princeton, and this was deemed too big a loss to the gate in the East regional.

Michigan State-Ohio State

This was the only really difficult decision the committee had to make, since MSU defeated OSU in the CCHA championship game after winning the season series 2-1. Also, the attendance drawbacks of switching Ohio State with Wisconsin are less pronounced than those in the East. Nonetheless, the committee decided to stick with the by-the-numbers placement.

The actual tournament brackets were thus set as follows:

5W Yale (E)                        6E CO College (W)
4W Ohio State (C)                  3E Clarkson (E)
     1W Mich State (C)   --+--2E Boston Coll (H)
                           |
     2W North Dakota (W) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C)                    4E Wisconsin (W)
6W Princeton (E)                   5E New Hampshire (H)

Purely by coincidence, these happen to be exactly the brackets you'll get if you go through my interactive selection script, choosing the default option at every turn. (Guess my script knows more than I do!)


Last Modified: 2011 October 9

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

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