Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.1998.shtml
After half a season of speculating on what how the NCAA Men's Ice Hockey Tournament Selection Committee would apply the selection procedure to a given set of data, we now have another example of how it turned out with the real numbers. (It differs slightly from my prediction of the seedings, made the night before the selection, but agrees exactly with Keith Instone's.)
The first step is to carry out the pairwise comparisons between the 19 teams who finished the season with .500 or better records. Using the final results from the Division I Composite Schedule on US College Hockey Online, we find the following comparison results:
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Mich State 18 .621 NDBUMiBCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
2 North Dakota 17 .616 __ BUMiBCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
3 Boston Univ 16 .595 ____ MiBCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
4 Michigan 15 .583 ______ BCOSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
5 Boston Coll 14 .581 ________ OSCkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
6 Ohio State 13 .565 __________ CkWiNHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
7 Clarkson 11 .570 ____________ WiNHCCYaPnNESC__NMMeMmRP
8 Wisconsin 11 .560 ______________ NHCCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
9 New Hampshire 10 .559 ________________ CCYaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
10 CO College 9 .548 __________________ YaPnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
11 Yale 8 .543 ____________________ PnNESCMDNMMeMmRP
12 Princeton 7 .518 ______________________ NESCMDNMMeMmRP
13 Northeastern 5 .519 ________________________ SCMD__MeMmRP
14 St Cloud 5 .535 __________________________ MDNMMeMmRP
15 Minn-Duluth 4 .514 ____________Ck______________ NM__MmRP
16 Northern Mich 4 .528 ________________________NE____ MeMmRP
17 Maine 3 .527 ____________________________MD__ MmRP
18 Miami 1 .515 __________________________________ RP
19 RPI 0 .498 ____________________________________
First of all, there are 7 automatic bids to the tournament: Boston University, Yale, Michigan State and North Dakota are in for winning the regular season tournaments in their conferences. In addition, Wisconsin, Princeton and Boston College are in for winning their conference tournaments. (Michigan State won both the tournament and regular season championships in the CCHA.) The remaining five bids are given out on the basis of the pairwise comparisons among teams. Here are the teams in the running for the five at-large bids:
Team lPWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Michigan 11 .583 OSCkNHCCNESCMDNMMeMmRP
2 Ohio State 10 .565 CkNHCCNESCMDNMMeMmRP
3 Clarkson 8 .570 __ NHCCNESC__NMMeMmRP
4 New Hampshire 8 .559 ____ CCNESCMDNMMeMmRP
5 CO College 7 .548 ______ NESCMDNMMeMmRP
6 NorthEastern 5 .519 ________ SCMD__MeMmRP
7 St Cloud 5 .535 __________ MDNMMeMmRP
8 Minn-Duluth 4 .514 __Ck________ NM__MmRP
9 Northern Mich 4 .528 ________NE____ MeMmRP
10 Maine 3 .527 ____________MD__ MmRP
11 Miami 1 .515 __________________ RP
12 RPI 0 .498 ____________________
With the exception of the Clarkson/UMD comparison, the top five teams beat all the others, so it's easy to see they make the tourney. Here, then, are the qualifying teams (which happen to be the top twelve in the PWR):
West East
1 Mich State 5 .621 NDMiOSWiCC | 1 Boston Univ 5 .595 BCCkNHYaPn
2 North Dakota 4 .616 MiOSWiCC | 2 Boston Coll 4 .581 CkNHYaPn
3 Michigan 3 .583 __ OSWiCC | 3 Clarkson 3 .570 __ NHYaPn
4 Ohio State 2 .565 ____ WiCC | 4 New Hampshire 2 .559 ____ YaPn
5 Wisconsin 1 .560 ______ CC | 5 Yale 1 .543 ______ Pn
6 CO College 0 .548 ________ | 6 Princeton 0 .518 ________
Michigan State automatically receives a first-round bye in the regionals for winning both the CCHA regular season title and the CCHA tournament. The pairwise comparisons also tell us to give BU, BC and North Dakota byes. Going by the numbers, we should swap Yale and Princeton with Wisconsin and Colorado College, giving the following regionals:
West East
1 Mich State (C) 1 .621 ND | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .595 BC
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .616 | 2 Boston Coll (H) 0 .581
3 Michigan (C) 3 .583 OSYaPn | 3 Clarkson (E) 3 .570 WiNHCC
4 Ohio State (C) 2 .565 YaPn | 4 Wisconsin (W) 2 .560 NHCC
5 Yale (E) 1 .543 __ Pn | 5 New Hampshire (H) 1 .559 __ CC
6 Princeton (E) 0 .518 ____ | 6 CO College (W) 0 .548 ____
The natural seedings in both regionals lead to potential second-round intraconference games between Ohio State and Michigan State in the West and UNH and Boston University in the East. With three CCHA teams in one regional and three Hockey East teams in the other, these cannot be prevented by re-arranging teams within the regionals, but only by swapping different teams between the East and West. The two situations are slightly different:
The committee did not worry too much about this one, since the two teams had not played one another since December and split their season series 1-1-1. Also, they would have had to send New Hampshire West in place of Yale or Princeton, and this was deemed too big a loss to the gate in the East regional.
This was the only really difficult decision the committee had to make, since MSU defeated OSU in the CCHA championship game after winning the season series 2-1. Also, the attendance drawbacks of switching Ohio State with Wisconsin are less pronounced than those in the East. Nonetheless, the committee decided to stick with the by-the-numbers placement.
The actual tournament brackets were thus set as follows:
5W Yale (E) 6E CO College (W)
4W Ohio State (C) 3E Clarkson (E)
1W Mich State (C) --+--2E Boston Coll (H)
|
2W North Dakota (W) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E Wisconsin (W)
6W Princeton (E) 5E New Hampshire (H)
Purely by coincidence, these happen to be exactly the brackets you'll get if you go through my interactive selection script, choosing the default option at every turn. (Guess my script knows more than I do!)