If the season ended today, 2002 March 5

© 2000-2002, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2002/pairwise.020305.shtml

Game results taken from US College Hockey Online's Division I composite schedule

The regular season has come to an end for all of Division I outside of College Hockey America, and the other five conferences are about to start their playoffs. Vermont, Union, Fairfield, Bentley, American International, and UMass-Amherst have all finished their seasons with losing records, and cannot make the NCAAs. To get a peek at how the rest of the teams are doing, let's see see how the NCAA selection procedure would play out if the season ended today.

First, the pairwise comparisons among the 28 tournament eligible teams with non-losing records (against other eligible teams):

Pairwise Comparisons (including games of 2002 March 3)

Pairwise Comparisons
Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 New Hampshire (H) 27 .6174 Mn DU Mi BU MS Me Cr SC CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
2 Minnesota  (W) 26 .6225 DU Mi BU MS Me Cr SC CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
3 Denver U  (W) 24 .6202   Mi BU MS Me   SC CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
4 Michigan  (C) 23 .5879     BU MS Me Cr   CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
5 Boston Univ  (H) 22 .6041       MS Me Cr   CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
6 Mich State  (C) 22 .5945         Me Cr SC CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
7 Maine  (H) 21 .5828           Cr SC CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
8 Cornell  (E) 21 .5784   DU         SC CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
9 SCloud  (W) 21 .6068     Mi BU       CC Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
10 CCollege  (W) 18 .5751                 Ak WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
11 AK-Fairbanks  (C) 17 .5665                   WM NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
12 Western Mich  (C) 16 .5562                     NM Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
13 Northern Mich (C) 15 .5535                       Mh ML NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
14 Mercyhurst  (M) 13 .5431                           NO NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
15 Mass-Lowell  (H) 12 .5645                         Mh NO   OS   Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
16 NE-Omaha  (C) 12 .5469                             NE OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
17 NorthEastern  (H) 12 .5402                           ML   OS Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
18 Ohio State  (C) 10 .5246                                 Bn Ck RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
19 Brown  (E) 9 .4976                           ML       Ck   BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
20 Clarkson  (E) 8 .5103                                     RP BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
21 RPI  (E) 8 .5012                                   Bn   BC WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
22 Boston Coll  (H) 6 .5238                                         WS Qn SH HC Da Ca
23 Wayne State  (A) 5 .4960                                           Qn SH HC Da Ca
24 Quinnipiac  (M) 4 .4851                                             SH HC Da Ca
25 Sacred Heart  (M) 3 .4788                                               HC Da Ca
26 Holy Cross  (M) 2 .4817                                                 Da Ca
27 Dartmouth  (E) 1 .4762                                                   Ca
28 Canisius  (M) 0 .4566                                                    

The top eleven teams win all of their comparisons with all the teams below them. If we assume that four of the five conference champions receiving automatic bids come from that group (which includes the top seeds in the CCHA, WCHA, ECAC, and Hockey East tournaments), and that the fifth goes to the top seed in the MAAC tournament, Mercyhurst, we get a tournament field consisting of:

TeamlPWRRPI Comparisons Won
New Hampshire (H) 11 .6174 Mn DU Mi BU MS Me Cr SC CC Ak Mh
Minnesota (W) 10 .6225 DU Mi BU MS Me Cr SC CC Ak Mh
Denver U (W) 8 .6202   Mi BU MS Me   SC CC Ak Mh
Michigan (C) 7 .5879     BU MS Me Cr   CC Ak Mh
Boston Univ (H) 6 .6041       MS Me Cr   CC Ak Mh
Mich State (C) 6 .5945         Me Cr SC CC Ak Mh
Maine (H) 5 .5828           Cr SC CC Ak Mh
Cornell (E) 5 .5784   DU         SC CC Ak Mh
SCloud (W) 5 .6068     Mi BU       CC Ak Mh
CCollege (W) 2 .5751                 Ak Mh
AK-Fairbanks (C) 1 .5665                   Mh
Mercyhurst (M) 0 .5431                    

The top four teams in the country get first-round byes. That group obviously includes UNH and Minnesota, and also pretty clearly Denver and Michigan. These teams should be seeded so that #1 UNH would play #4 Michigan in the NCAA semifinals, which can be accomplished by making UNH the top seed in the East and Michigan the second seed in the West (the Wolverines have to play in the Western Regional, which they host). Given their superiority according to the selection criteria, Minnesota should be the top seed in the West, with Denver getting the number two seed in the East.

Of the remaining eight tournament teams, four come from the East and four from the West. In past years, the NCAA would have switched some of these teams into the other regionals, but in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, they have decided to seed postseason tournaments so as to minimize air travel. Ordinarily, this would mean keeping all eight teams in their own region, but in this case, Mercyhurst would actually have a shorter trip from Erie, PA to the West Regional in Ann Arbor, MI than to the East Regional in Worcester, MA, and Alaska-Fairbanks would have to fly into the same time zone for either regional. So let's assume the committee would switch these teams after all. This sets up the following regionals:

Western Regional
(Ann Arbor, MI)

Eastern Regional
(Worcester, MA)

TeamlPWRRPI Comps Won
Minnesota (W) 1 .6225 Mi
Michigan (C) 0 .5879
Mich State (C) 3 .5945 SC CC Mh
SCloud (W) 2 .6068 CC Mh
CCollege (W) 1 .5751   Mh
Mercyhurst (M) 0 .5431    
TeamlPWRRPI Comps Won
New Hampshire (H) 1 .6174 DU
Denver U (W) 0 .6202
Boston Univ (H) 3 .6041 Me Cr Ak
Maine (H) 2 .5828 Cr Ak
Cornell (E) 1 .5784   Ak
AK-Fairbanks (C) 0 .5665    

The East Regional can be seeded straight-up according to the pairwise comparisons; in the West we need to change things around to avoid a SCSU-CC game in the first round. Switching St. Cloud with Michigan State also gets rid of the potential second-round all-CCHA game (it's not such a big deal any more, but we get this one "for free"), so let's do that, which gives us NCAA tournament brackets of:

5W CO College (W)                  6E AK-Fairbanks (C)  
4W Mich State (C)                  3E Boston Univ (H)   
     1W Minnesota (W)    --+--2E Denver U (W)           
                           |                             
     2W Michigan (C)     --+--1E New Hampshire (H)      
3W St Cloud (W)                    4E Maine (H)         
6W Mercyhurst (M)                  5E Cornell (E)      

The Gory Details

If you want to have a look at why each pairwise comparison turned out the way it did, you can click on the individual comparisons in the table at the top of this article for a breakdown of criteria. You can also go though the process yourself using today's pairwise comparisons with the "You Are The Committee" script.


Last Modified: 2012 March 25

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

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