If the season ended today, 2001 March 12

© 2000, 2001, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2001/pairwise.010312.shtml

Game results taken from US College Hockey Online's Division I composite schedule

This analysis is based on the pairwise comparisons at the time it was written. You can also go through this process interactively with the up-to-date results using the "You Are The Committee" script, or you can fill in hypothetical results for the remaining games using the conference tournament bracket or non-table hypothetical interface, and use the resulting pairwise comparisons. You can also use the self-service hypothetical interface to add, remove, or change any results you like from this season and go from there.

One conference, College Hockey America has held its conference tournament, while the other five Division I conferences have completed the first round of their postseasons. This season no automatic bids are being awarded for regular season championships; five autobids will be awarded to the winners of the five remaining conference tournaments, and the remaining seven NCAA tournament berths will be assigned a based on pairwise comparisons between teams using the NCAA's selection criteria. Here are the current pairwise comparisons among the 29 teams with Division 1 records of .500 or better:

Pairwise Comparisons
Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Mich State (C) 29 .6295 BC ND SC Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
2 Boston Coll (H) 28 .6104 ND SC Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
3 North Dakota (W) 27 .5839   SC Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
4 SCloud (W) 26 .5871     Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
5 Minnesota (W) 25 .5789       Mi CC Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
6 Michigan (C) 24 .5739         CC Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
7 CCollege (W) 23 .5819           Me Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
8 Maine (H) 22 .5635             Wi Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
9 Wisconsin (W) 20 .5615               Pv NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU   WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
10 Providence (H) 19 .5513                 NH Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM   ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
11 New Hampshire (H) 19 .5495                   Ck NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
12 Clarkson (E) 18 .5447                     NO Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
13 NE-Omaha (C) 17 .5331                       Mh Qn DU Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
14 Mercyhurst (M) 15 .5341                         Qn DU Ca   SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
15 Quinnipiac (M) 14 .5340                             Ca WM SL Mm NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
16 Denver U (W) 13 .5445                           Qn   WM SL Mm NM   ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
17 Canisius (M) 12 .5134               Wi             DU WM     NM Da   Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
18 Western Mich (C) 12 .5343                         Mh       SL   NM Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
19 SLawrence (E) 11 .5278                               Ca   Mm   Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
20 Miami (C) 11 .5204                               Ca WM   NM Da   Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
21 Northern Mich (C) 10 .5321                                   SL   Da ML Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
22 Dartmouth (E) 9 .5105                 Pv           DU           ML   Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
23 Mass-Lowell (H) 9 .5246                               Ca     Mm     Mk Io Cr Ha AH RP SH
24 MSU-Mankato (W) 6 .5204                                         Da   Io   Ha AH RP SH
25 Iona (M) 5 .5093                                               Cr Ha AH RP SH
26 Cornell (E) 5 .5167                                             Mk   Ha AH RP SH
27 Harvard (E) 3 .5095                                                   AH RP SH
28 AL-Huntsville (A) 2 .5071                                                     RP SH
29 RPI (E) 1 .4940                                                       SH
30 Sacred Heart (M) 0 .4767                                                        

Note that no member of the MAAC is in the top 12 according to comparisons, and with Clarkson's early exit from the ECAC playoffs, neither is any team still alive in the ECAC postseason. So at least two automatic bids will go to teams which would not otherwise receive at-large bids. For the exercise of a mock seeding based on the current results, let's assign each conference's auto-bid to the highest seed left in their conference tournament, namely Michigan State, North Dakota, St. Lawrence, Boston College and Mercyhurst. Five of the seven at-large bids are no-brainers, as St. Cloud, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado College and Maine win pairwise comparisons with all of the other 20 teams eligible for an at-large berth. Wisconsin wins all but the unreliable Canisius comparison, and Providence beats everyone but Dartmouth, so those two teams are logical choices for the last two. (In particular, Providence wins comparisons with UNH and any other team which could be reasonably considered to be "on the bubble". So the field of twelve would thus be:

TeamlPWRRPI Comparisons Won
Mich State (C) 11 .6295 BC ND SC Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv Mh SL
Boston Coll (H) 10 .6104 ND SC Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv Mh SL
North Dakota (W) 9 .5839   SC Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv Mh SL
SCloud (W) 8 .5871     Mn Mi CC Me Wi Pv Mh SL
Minnesota (W) 7 .5789       Mi CC Me Wi Pv Mh SL
Michigan (C) 6 .5739         CC Me Wi Pv Mh SL
CCollege (W) 5 .5819           Me Wi Pv Mh SL
Maine (H) 4 .5635             Wi Pv Mh SL
Wisconsin (W) 3 .5615               Pv Mh SL
Providence (H) 2 .5513                 Mh SL
Mercyhurst (M) 1 .5341                   SL
SLawrence (E) 0 .5278                    

Another change from past years is that the byes are given out strictly according to the pairwise comparisons, and the top four teams (MSU, BC, NoDak, and SCSU, include three Western and one Eastern team. MSU, as the top team, earns the #1 seed in the West, with BC getting the #1 East seed. Presumably the third-best team, North Dakota, gets to stay in the West as a 2-seed, and St. Cloud becomes the #2-East seed.

Next, we need to swap the bottom teams out of each region. There are four non-bye teams left in each region, and presumably we still want to swap two pairs of teams. In the West, the bottom two are CC and Wisconsin. In the East, they're SLU and Mercyhurst, but since the NCAA likes to avoid possible intraconference games in the regionals, I'd guess they'd send one of the three Hockey East teams (Providence being the obvious choice on the basis of comparisons). That would seem to call for Providence and SLU to be traded for CC and Wisconsin, but the committee has shown its willingness in the past to overrule comparisons won by teams from non-competitive conferences, and Mercyhurst would certainly fall into that category. That then leads to SLU staying East while Mercyhurst and Providence are sent West:

Western Regional
(Grand Rapids, MI)

Eastern Regional
(Worcester, MA)

TeamlPWRRPI Comps Won
Mich State (C)
North Dakota (W)
Minnesota (W) 3 .5789 Mi Pv Mh
Michigan (C) 2 .5739 Pv Mh
Providence (H) 1 .5513   Mh
Mercyhurst (M) 0 .5341    
TeamlPWRRPI Comps Won
Boston Coll (H)
SCloud (W)
CCollege (W) 3 .5819 Me Wi SL
Maine (H) 2 .5635 Wi SL
Wisconsin (W) 1 .5615   SL
SLawrence (E) 0 .5278    

Now the teams are seeded. Each region should be seeded so that #4 plays #5 in the first round, with the winner going on to play #1, while #3 and #6 play for the right to face #2. All else being equal, this would be done on the basis of the pairwise comparisons, but a glance at the tables above show that in both regionals, the #1 and #4 teams are from the same conference, as are #2 and #3. So the committee would switch the #3 and #4 teams in each regional. In order to maintain the first-round pairings, they'd also switch #5 and #6, with the results being the following brackets:

5W Mercyhurst (M)                  6E Wisconsin (W)     
4W Minnesota (W)                   3E Maine (H)         
     1W Mich State (C)   --+--2E St Cloud (W)          
                           |                           
     2W North Dakota (W) --+--1E Boston Coll (H)       
3W Michigan (C)                    4E CO College (W)    
6W Providence (H)                  5E St Lawrence (E)  

The Gory Details

If you want to have a look at why each pairwise comparison turned out the way it did, you can click on the individual comparisons in the table at the top of this article for a breakdown of criteria.


Last Modified: 2011 October 9

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

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