Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1999/pairwise.990221.shtml
Remember, you can go through this process interactively using the "You Are The Committee" script.
With two weeks left in the regular seasons of the four major conferences and four weeks until the NCAA Tournament is seeded, here's another dry run through the NCAA Tournament selection procedure using the results to date from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule. This week there 25 teams under consideration (i.e., with .500 or better records against tournament-eligible competition), which have the following pairwise comparisons with one another:
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 North Dakota 24 .656 MeMSNHCkBCCCQnSLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
2 Maine 23 .623 __ MSNHCkBCCCQnSLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
3 Mich State 22 .613 ____ NHCkBCCCQnSLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
4 New Hampshire 21 .621 ______ CkBCCCQnSLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
5 Clarkson 20 .585 ________ BCCCQnSLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
6 Boston Coll 18 .582 __________ CC__SLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
7 CO College 18 .584 ____________ QnSLDUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
8 Quinnipiac 17 .540 __________BC__ SL__OSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
9 St Lawrence 16 .558 ________________ DUOSNMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
10 Denver U 15 .549 ______________Qn__ OSNM__RPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
11 Ohio State 14 .539 ____________________ NMMiRPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
12 Northern Mich 12 .544 ______________________ __RPCtNtPnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
13 Michigan 11 .549 __________________DU__NM RP__Nt__Pv__CgMLFSCrHCIo
14 RPI 10 .529 __________________________ Ct__PnPvNiCgMLFSCrHCIo
15 Connecticut 10 .509 ________________________Mi__ NtPn__NiCgMLFSCrHCIo
16 Notre Dame 9 .541 __________________________RP__ PnPv__CgMLFSCrHCIo
17 Princeton 8 .531 ________________________Mi______ Pv__CgMLFSCrHCIo
18 Providence 8 .526 ____________________________Ct____ NiCgMLFSCrHCIo
19 Niagara 8 .477 ________________________Mi____NtPn__ Cg__FSCrHCIo
20 Colgate 5 .512 ______________________________________ MLFSCrHCIo
21 Mass-Lowell 5 .505 ____________________________________Ni__ FSCrHCIo
22 Ferris State 2 .498 __________________________________________ Cr__Io
23 Cornell 2 .496 ____________________________________________ HCIo
24 Holy Cross 2 .476 __________________________________________FS__ Io
25 Iona 0 .421 ________________________________________________
For the first time this season, we know two of the tournament participants without a doubt: Michigan State in the CCHA and North Dakota in the WCHA have wrapped up their conference regular season titles and the associated automatic bids. The two Eastern conferences are up for grabs, but for this excercise we assign those bids to the current leaders: Clarkson (one point ahead of St. Lawrence) in the ECAC and Maine (whose game in hand gives them a better winning percentage than New Hampshire, despite having one point less) in Hockey East. We gained a little more information on the relative strength of the MAAC to the other conferences this week when Division I independent Army tied Iona while losing to Hockey East's Mass-Amherst. That did little to change the picture:
vs Indies vs Army vs Niagara vs AFA vs Mankato
Avg RPI PF-PA Pct PF-PA Pct PF-PA Pct PF-PA Pct PF-PA Pct
HE .527 14- 2 .875 12-0 1.000 0- 2 .000 2-0 1.000 0-0 .---
WCHA .506 28- 8 .778 0-0 .--- 0- 0 .--- 10-0 1.000 18-8 .692
CCHA .505 5- 5 .500 0-0 .--- 2- 4 .333 0-0 .--- 3-1 .750
ECAC .497 28-10 .737 10-0 1.000 10-10 .500 2-0 1.000 6-0 1.000
MAAC .448 8-20 .286 5-5 .500 0- 2 .000 3-5 .350 0-8 .000
which seems to indicate that MAAC teams will be excluded on the basis of their weak conference and limited non-conference schedule. This means denying a bid to Quinnipiac, who are 14-2-2 against the Division I teams in their conference, but have otherwise only beaten Army and split a pair with Air Force. Neither of these teams has won a single game against a member of one of the four established conferences.
For once the assignment of the eight at-large bids is relatively painless: UNH, BC, CC and SLU win comparisons with everyone else, and DU and OSU are also easy choices. The comparisons among bubble teams stack up like so:
Team lPWR RPI Comps Won
1 Denver U 6 .549 OS__NMNiNtRPPn
2 Ohio State 6 .539 __ MiNMNiNtRPPn
3 Michigan 4 .549 DU__ NM__NtRP__
4 Northern Mich 4 .544 ______ NiNtRPPn
5 Niagara 3 .477 ____Mi__ Nt__Pn
6 Notre Dame 2 .541 __________ RPPn
7 RPI 2 .529 ________Ni__ Pn
8 Princeton 1 .531 ____Mi________
DU and OSU are at the top of this crop, and even if we toss out the bottom three and constrain the final choice to Michigan, NMU and Niagara, each of whom wins one comparison and loses one against the others, this rock-scissors-papers (RSP) standoff is resolved by going to the Ratings Percentage Index, which leaves the Purple Eagles out of the tournament field. That field has seven Western and only five Eastern teams, so according to the committee's guidelines, we take the bottom team from the West (Northern Michigan, who win no comparisons with any other Western team) and declare them honorary Easterners:
West East
1 North Dakota 5 .656 MSCCMiDUOS | 1 Maine 5 .623 NHCkBCSLNM
2 Mich State 4 .613 CCMiDUOS | 2 New Hampshire 4 .621 CkBCSLNM
3 CO College 3 .584 __ MiDUOS | 3 Clarkson 3 .585 __ BCSLNM
4 Michigan 1 .549 ____ DU__ | 4 Boston Coll 2 .582 ____ SLNM
5 Denver U 1 .549 ______ OS | 5 St Lawrence 1 .558 ______ NM
6 Ohio State 1 .539 ____Mi__ | 6 Northern Mich 0 .544 ________
North Dakota and Michigan State get the two Western byes on the basis of their pairwise comparisons even if neither of them wins their league tournament. Maine and UNH get the byes in the East, unless Clarkson happens to be the tournament as well as regular season champion of the ECAC, which would entitle them to an automatic bye. Assuming this is not the case (which means that St. Lawrence must have been the ECAC tournament winner for the purposes of this exercise), we move on to the question of which two teams to swap between the Eastern and Western regions. The bottom two teams in the East are St. Lawrence and Northern Michigan, and while keeping Boston College in the East ensures that their potential second-round opponent will be a fellow Hockey East team, it's pretty certain that the committee would place them there anyway for attendance reasons, with the East Regional being held in nearby Worcester, Mass. In the West, the bottom three teams are in a RSP tie, but Michigan has the highest RPI of the three (.5493 vs .5486 for Denver) so they would get the nod to stay in Madison, a decision which seems to be consistent with considerations of both attendance and conference balance. The resulting regions:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .656 MS | 1 Maine (H) 1 .623 NH
2 Mich State (C) 0 .613 | 2 New Hampshire (H) 0 .621
3 CO College (W) 3 .584 SLMiNM | 3 Clarkson (E) 3 .585 BCDUOS
4 St Lawrence (E) 2 .558 MiNM | 4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .582 DUOS
5 Michigan (C) 1 .549 __ NM | 5 Denver U (W) 1 .549 __ OS
6 Northern Mich (C) 0 .544 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .539 ____
have no first-round matchups between conference foes if the regionals are seeded naturally, and the two second-round matchups are unavoidable given seven Western teams and a desire to keep Noston College in the East. The most probably tinkering might be to put NMU in the East in place of DU or OSU, but the Wildcats look like a reasonable Western draw as Marquette is closer to Madison than either Denver or Columbus. This makes the predicted brackets:
5W Michigan (C) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W St Lawrence (E) 3E Clarkson (E)
1W North Dakota (W) --+--2E New Hampshire (H)
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2W Mich State (C) --+--1E Maine (H)
3W CO College (W) 4E Boston Coll (H)
6W Northern Mich (C) 5E Denver U (W)
You also can look at the detailed description of each of the pairwise comparisons, if you're so inclined.