Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980310.shtml
Want to play along at home, kids? Check out "You Are The Committee", an interactive script which lets you go through the decision-making process of tournament selection.
The regular season has come to an end, and only two weeks of conference playoffs separate us from the selection of the NCAA tournament field. We have our first four members of the field of twelve cast in stone: North Dakota, Michigan State, Yale and BU all automatically qualify for the tournament thanks to their regular season championships. We also know that Army, Air Force, Dartmouth, Union, UAF, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, and UMass-Amherst are done for the season. The other 32 teams have two weeks to move into position for the tournament on the basis of the NCAA Tournament selection procedure.
To get an idea of where teams stand at the moment, let's use the results through the end of the regular season, obtained from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, and carry out the selection procedure based on those games. First, we perform pairwise comparisons among the 20 teams with non-losing records, obtaining the following results (note that you can get the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index from USCHO at any time):
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 North Dakota 19 .616 BUMSMiCkNHYaOSBCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
2 Boston Univ 18 .619 __ MSMiCkNHYaOSBCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
3 Mich State 17 .615 ____ MiCkNHYaOSBCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
4 Michigan 16 .590 ______ CkNHYaOSBCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
5 Clarkson 14 .570 ________ NH__OSBCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
6 New Hampshire 14 .576 __________ YaOSBCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
7 Yale 13 .565 ________Ck__ OS__WiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
8 Ohio State 12 .556 ______________ BCWiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
9 Boston Coll 12 .571 ____________Ya__ WiCCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
10 Wisconsin 10 .546 __________________ CCSCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
11 CO College 9 .548 ____________________ SCNEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
12 St Cloud 8 .537 ______________________ NEMDMmNMLSRPCgPn
13 Northeastern 7 .531 ________________________ MDMmNMLSRPCgPn
14 Minn-Duluth 6 .521 __________________________ MmNMLSRPCgPn
15 Miami 5 .531 ____________________________ NMLSRPCgPn
16 Northern Mich 4 .519 ______________________________ LSRPCgPn
17 Lake Superior 3 .506 ________________________________ RPCgPn
18 RPI 2 .509 __________________________________ CgPn
19 Colgate 1 .496 ____________________________________ Pn
20 Princeton 0 .491 ______________________________________
We've already given automatic bids to the four regular season champions. The tournament champions will also get automatic bids, but let's leave those aside for this exercise. It's absolutely clear in that case that we should fill out the tournament field with Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Colorado College, St. Cloud, Clarkson, New Hampshire and Boston College. (Note in fact that the only two "out of place" comparisons involve Yale, who are not competing for an at large bid anyway. Before we rank the teams within their regions, we need to move the seventh Western team, St. Cloud, temporarily to the East, giving:
West East
1 North Dakota 5 .616 MSMiOSWiCC | 1 Boston Univ 5 .619 CkNHBCYaSC
2 Mich State 4 .615 MiOSWiCC | 2 Clarkson 3 .570 NHBC__SC
3 Michigan 3 .590 __ OSWiCC | 3 New Hampshire 3 .576 __ BCYaSC
4 Ohio State 2 .556 ____ WiCC | 4 Boston Coll 2 .571 ____ YaSC
5 Wisconsin 1 .546 ______ CC | 5 Yale 2 .565 Ck____ SC
6 CO College 0 .548 ________ | 6 St Cloud 0 .537 ________
North Dakota and Michigan State get the byes in the West, and BU gets the top Eastern bye. The second Eastern bye is a little trickier, but the comparisons tell us it's down to Clarkson and New Hampshire, and Clarkson wins the pairwise comparison with UNH to claim the last bye. If Yale, the one regular season champion without a bye, also wins their tournament title, however, they would snatch the bye away from Clarkson. That would make a big difference, since the comparisons tell us to send Yale and St. Cloud out West in exchange for Wisconsin and Colorado College. This gives regional makeups of:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .616 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .619 Ck
2 Mich State (C) 0 .615 | 2 Clarkson (E) 0 .570
3 Michigan (C) 3 .590 YaOSSC | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .576 BCWiCC
4 Yale (E) 2 .565 OSSC | 4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .571 WiCC
5 Ohio State (C) 1 .556 __ SC | 5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .546 __ CC
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .537 ____ | 6 CO College (W) 0 .548 ____
We've got some problems with second-round games between teams in the same conference. With seven Western teams, one such matchup is inevitable, but we can get rid of the matchup in the East by switching BC with Yale, while in the West we should swap Ohio State for one of the WCHA teams, say Wisconsin, to bring us down to only one intraconference possibility:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .616 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .619 Ck
2 Mich State (C) 0 .615 | 2 Clarkson (E) 0 .570
3 Michigan (C) 3 .590 BCWiSC | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .576 YaOSCC
4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .571 WiSC | 4 Yale (E) 2 .565 OSCC
5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .546 __ SC | 5 Ohio State (C) 1 .556 __ CC
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .537 ____ | 6 CO College (W) 0 .548 ____
The one change we have to make within the regions is to switch Michigan and BC to avert a Michigan/Michigan State game in the regionals. To preserve the first-round pairings, we should also swap Wisconsin and St. Cloud, which makes the tournament brackets:
5W St Cloud (W) 6E CO College (W)
4W Michigan (C) 3E New Hampshire (H)
1W North Dakota (W)--+--2E Clarkson (E)
|
2W Mich State (C) --+--1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Boston Coll (H) 4E Yale (E)
6W Wisconsin (W) 5E Ohio State (C)
If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.