Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980302.shtml
Want to play along at home, kids? Check out "You Are The Committee", an interactive script which lets you go through the decision-making process of tournament selection.
Three weeks from now, the NCAA tournament seedings will be set. In the mean time, let's use the results through this weekend to see how the NCAA Tournament selection procedure will work itself out. Starting with game results from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, the pairwise comparisons among the 24 teams with .500 or better records are (see USCHO for the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index, independently calculated):
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Mich State 23 .621 NDBUMiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
2 North Dakota 22 .621 __ BUMiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
3 Boston Univ 21 .616 ____ MiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
4 Michigan 20 .589 ______ NHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
5 New Hampshire 19 .581 ________ BCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
6 Boston Coll 17 .570 __________ Ya__OSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
7 Yale 17 .560 ____________ CkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
8 Clarkson 17 .559 __________BC__ OSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
9 Ohio State 15 .548 ________________ WiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
10 Wisconsin 13 .538 __________________ CC__NESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
11 CO College 12 .544 ____________________ MmNE__MDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
12 Miami 12 .541 __________________Wi__ NE__MDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
13 Northeastern 11 .530 ________________________ SCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
14 St Cloud 10 .556 ____________________CCMm__ MDCgNt__NM__PnCrPvDa
15 Minn-Duluth 9 .519 ____________________________ CgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
16 Colgate 8 .508 ______________________________ NtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
17 Notre Dame 7 .513 ________________________________ LSNMRPPnCrPvDa
18 Lake Superior 6 .507 __________________________SC______ __RPPnCrPvDa
19 Northern Mich 5 .510 __________________________________LS RP__CrPvDa
20 RPI 5 .504 __________________________SC__________ PnCrPvDa
21 Princeton 4 .501 ____________________________________NM__ CrPvDa
22 Cornell 2 .494 __________________________________________ PvDa
23 Providence 1 .500 ____________________________________________ Da
24 Dartmouth 0 .468 ______________________________________________
The first thing to do is give out automatic bids to the conference champions. North Dakota has become the first team to clinch a regular season title, but for the sake of this exercise, we'll assume that the current leaders, Michigan State, Yale and BU, win their respective conferences as well. Next come the at large bids, and for the first time the selection procedure does not tell us to send the top twelve teams in the pairwise rankings. Instead, we're supposed to identify the teams on the bubble and consider pairwise comparisons among them. Michigan, New Hampshire, Clarkson, BC and Ohio State are all clearly in, leaving three more bids to be determined. A reasonable definition of the "bubble" would be Wisconsin, CC, Miami, Colgate and St. Cloud, and looking at the comparisons among these teams:
Team lPWR RPI Comps Won
1 Wisconsin 3 .538 SCCC__NE
2 St Cloud 2 .556 __ CCMm__
3 CO College 2 .544 ____ MmNE
4 Miami 2 .541 Wi____ NE
5 Northeastern 1 .530 __SC____
Wisconsin gets one bid, since they have the highest "local PWR", and Northeastern is out, with the lowest. Of the remaining three teams, SCSU and CC both win their comparisons with Miami, and thus grab the last two spots. Thus St. Cloud, despite having a total PWR two lower than Miami's, grabs the last tournament spot from the RedHawks. This conclusion is inescapable unless we extend the "bubble" all the way down to #18 Lake State or #20 RPI.
With that settled, we move to ranking the teams within the regions. Once again we have seven Western teams, so we move Colorado College to the East, giving regions of:
West East
1 Mich State 5 .621 NDMiOSWiSC | 1 Boston Univ 5 .616 NHBCYaCkCC
2 North Dakota 4 .621 MiOSWiSC | 2 New Hampshire 4 .581 BCYaCkCC
3 Michigan 3 .589 __ OSWiSC | 3 Boston Coll 2 .570 __ Ya__CC
4 Ohio State 2 .548 ____ WiSC | 4 Yale 2 .560 ____ CkCC
5 Wisconsin 1 .538 ______ SC | 5 Clarkson 2 .559 __BC__ CC
6 St Cloud 0 .556 ________ | 6 CO College 0 .544 ________
Michigan State, North Dakota, BU and UNH get the byes (unless Yale happens to be the tournament champion as well as the regular season title-holder in the ECAC). The pairwise comparisons tell us to send Wisconsin and St. Cloud East and CC back West. (If the committee is trying to maximize attendance at the West Regional, they might put Wisconsin in the West regional instead of CC, but substitution won't affect any of the other manipulations.) As for the other Eastern team to get shipped out, BC, Yale and Clarkson are all even on comparisons, but Clarkson has the lowest RPI of the three. However, with two Hockey East teams holding the Eastern byes, the committee will probably keep the ECAC teams in the Eastern regional and ship out Boston College to avoid a possible intra-conference matchup. The regionals then look like:
West East
1 Mich State (C) 1 .621 ND | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .616 NH
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .621 | 2 New Hampshire (H) 0 .581
3 Michigan (C) 3 .589 BCOSCC | 3 Yale (E) 3 .560 CkWiSC
4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .570 OSCC | 4 Clarkson (E) 2 .559 WiSC
5 Ohio State (C) 1 .548 __ CC | 5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .538 __ SC
6 CO College (W) 0 .544 ____ | 6 St Cloud (W) 0 .556 ____
Using the comparisons to fill out the brackets in "natural" seeding order gives
5W Ohio State (C) 6E St Cloud (W)
4W Boston Coll (H) 3E Yale (E)
1W Mich State (C) 2E New Hampshire (H)
2W North Dakota (W) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E Clarkson (E)
6W CO College (W) 5E Wisconsin (W)
Which has no first-round matchups between teams in the same conference and only two possible second-round battles, either of which requires a first-round upset. We could reduce that number to one by swapping Michigan with BC and and OSU with CC, but then the all-CCHA game in the second round would be fairly likely to come up, with Michigan only needing to beat Colorado College. From the point of view of minimizing the likelihood of a second-round conference matchup, the best pairings are:
5W CO College (W) 6E St Cloud (W)
4W Ohio State (C) 3E Yale (E)
1W Mich State (C) 2E New Hampshire (H)
2W North Dakota (W) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E Clarkson (E)
6W Boston Coll (H) 5E Wisconsin (W)
This is not really optimal from a seeding standpoint, however, as it has the top two non-bye teams in the West regional meeting in the first round. But there's no way to do any better by placing teams in different regionals, since Michigan, as the host school, must stay West.
If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.