Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980223.shtml
Let's take yet another dry run through the NCAA Tournament selection procedure. This week we welcome Mankato State back to the ranks of the Teams Under Consideration. Using the game results from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, we've performed pairwise comparisons among those 24 teams, and come up with the following results (the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index, independently calculated, can be found on USCHO)
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 North Dakota 23 .627 MSBUNHYaMiCkBCSCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
2 Mich State 22 .617 BUNHYaMiCkBCSCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
3 Boston Univ 21 .622 __ NHYaMiCkBCSCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
4 New Hampshire 20 .596 ____ YaMiCkBCSCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
5 Yale 19 .575 ______ MiCkBCSCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
6 Michigan 18 .595 ________ CkBCSCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
7 Clarkson 16 .549 __________ BC__OSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
8 Boston Coll 16 .564 ____________ SCOSMmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
9 St Cloud 15 .552 __________Ck__ __MmWiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
10 Ohio State 14 .543 ______________SC __WiCCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
11 Miami 13 .548 ________________OS WiCCCg__NMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
12 Wisconsin 12 .536 ____________________ CCCgMDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
13 CO College 10 .533 ______________________ CgMDNMNE__CrRPPnMLDaMk
14 Colgate 10 .522 ________________________ MDNMNELSCrRPPnMLDaMk
15 Minn-Duluth 8 .508 __________________Mm______ NM____CrRPPnMLDaMk
16 Northern Mich 7 .523 ____________________________ NELSCrRP__MLDaMk
17 Northeastern 7 .514 __________________________MD__ LS__RPPnMLDaMk
18 Lake Superior 7 .510 ______________________CC__MD____ __RPPnMLDaMk
19 Cornell 6 .515 ______________________________NELS __PnMLDaMk
20 RPI 5 .495 __________________________________Cr PnMLDaMk
21 Princeton 4 .499 ____________________________NM________ MLDaMk
22 Mass-Lowell 2 .501 ________________________________________ DaMk
23 Dartmouth 1 .466 __________________________________________ Mk
24 Mankato State 0 .461 ____________________________________________
The selection procedure starts off by awarding automatic bids to the conference champions. For these purposes, we'll assign those to the current leaders: North Dakota, Michigan State, Yale and BU. Miami's pairwise loss to UMD notwithstanding, the pairwise comparisons tell us to assign the at large bids to UNH, Clarkson and BC in the East and Michigan, SCSU, OSU, Miami and Wisconsin in the West. Once again, we have more Western than Eastern teams (Clarkson displacing Colgate in the field of twelve), and so we name Wisconsin an honorary Eastern team:
West East
1 North Dakota 5 .627 MSMiSCMmOS | 1 Boston Univ 5 .622 NHYaCkBCWi
2 Mich State 4 .617 MiSCMmOS | 2 New Hampshire 4 .596 YaCkBCWi
3 Michigan 3 .595 __ SCMmOS | 3 Yale 3 .575 __ CkBCWi
4 St Cloud 1 .552 ____ Mm__ | 4 Clarkson 2 .549 ____ BCWi
5 Miami 1 .548 ______ OS | 5 Boston Coll 1 .564 ______ Wi
6 Ohio State 1 .543 ____SC__ | 6 Wisconsin 0 .536 ________
The comparisons tell us to give byes to NoDak, Michigan State, BU and UNH. This doesn't take into consideration possible automatic byes for any teams that win both a regular season title and a conference tournament. This lends extra significance to the CCHA and Hockey East races, the former because either Michigan State or Michigan could steal the bye from the other, and the latter in case Yale wins the ECAC tourney. As for which teams to ship out, BC and Wisconsin lose pairwise comparisons to everyone else in the East, while the bottom three teams in the West are dead even on comparisons. Statistically, St. Cloud should be the one to stay in their own region, since they own the best RPI. However, if the West Regional in Ann Arbor is not already going to sell out, the committee might keep Ohio State there for attendence purposes. Let's look first at the scenario where SCSU is in the West Regional:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .627 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .622 NH
2 Mich State (C) 0 .617 | 2 New Hampshire (H) 0 .596
3 Michigan (C) 3 .595 BCSCWi | 3 Yale (E) 3 .575 CkMmOS
4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .564 SCWi | 4 Clarkson (E) 2 .549 MmOS
5 St Cloud (W) 1 .552 __ Wi | 5 Miami (C) 1 .548 __ OS
6 Wisconsin (W) 0 .536 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .543 ____
The Western regional has two possible second-round intraconference matchups, Michigan-Michigan State and St. Cloud-North Dakota. One of those is inevitable, given seven Western teams in the tourney, but we can avoid the other by switching Michigan and BC. In order to preserve the first-round pairings, we should also switch SCSU and Wisconsin, giving brackets of:
5W Wisconsin (W) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Michigan (C) 3E Yale (E)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E New Hampshire (H)
2W Mich State (C) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Boston Coll (H) 4E Clarkson (E)
6W St Cloud (W) 5E Miami (C)
If, on the other hand, Ohio State is kept in the West, the regions look like
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .627 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .622 NH
2 Mich State (C) 0 .617 | 2 New Hampshire (H) 0 .596
3 Michigan (C) 3 .595 BCOSWi | 3 Yale (E) 3 .575 SCCkMm
4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .564 OSWi | 4 St Cloud (W) 2 .552 CkMm
5 Ohio State (C) 1 .543 __ Wi | 5 Clarkson (E) 1 .549 __ Mm
6 Wisconsin (W) 0 .536 ____ | 6 Miami (C) 0 .548 ____
There are two options here, neither of them as good, from the standpoint of avoiding intraconference games. We can leave the teams where they are and have one possible second-round matchup, but that matchup would be fairly likely to occur, since it involves a three-seed beating a six-seed. If we switch Michigan and BC to avoid this, we'd have to switch the two bottom seeds as well to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State first-round matchup, giving the following brackets:
5W Wisconsin (W) 6E Miami (C)
4W Michigan (C) 3E Yale (E)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E New Hampshire (H)
2W Mich State (C) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Boston Coll (H) 4E St Cloud (W)
6W Ohio State (C) 5E Clarkson (E)
This has two potential second-round intraconference matchups, although either of them would require an upset. Deciding whether to keep St. Cloud and Ohio State in the Western regional would mean deciding whether conference or attendance considerations are more important in this instance.
If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.