Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980216.shtml
Now it's time for this week's look at the NCAA Tournament selection procedure. Using results through Sunday the 15th from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, we've calculated the pairwise comparisons among the 23 teams with .500 or better records. Here are the results (the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index, independently calculated, can be found on USCHO)
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 North Dakota 22 .624 MiNHMSBUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
2 Michigan 21 .606 NHMSBUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
3 New Hampshire 20 .616 __ MSBUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
4 Mich State 19 .600 ____ BUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
5 Boston Univ 18 .615 ______ YaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
6 Yale 17 .584 ________ BCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
7 Boston Coll 16 .565 __________ MmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
8 Miami 15 .569 ____________ SCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
9 St Cloud 14 .561 ______________ WiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
10 Wisconsin 13 .553 ________________ CgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
11 Colgate 12 .545 __________________ OSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
12 Ohio State 11 .544 ____________________ CkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
13 Clarkson 9 .529 ______________________ NMNECCCr__PnLSRPPvDa
14 Northern Mich 7 .527 ________________________ NECCCr____LSRPPvDa
15 Northeastern 7 .513 __________________________ CC__MDPnLSRPPvDa
16 CO College 7 .520 ____________________________ CrMDPnLSRPPvDa
17 Cornell 6 .519 __________________________NE__ MDPnLS__PvDa
18 Minn-Duluth 6 .509 ______________________CkNM______ __LSRPPvDa
19 Princeton 5 .509 ________________________NM______MD __RPPvDa
20 Lake Superior 4 .501 __________________________________Pn RPPvDa
21 RPI 3 .493 ______________________________Cr______ PvDa
22 Providence 1 .495 ________________________________________ Da
23 Dartmouth 0 .469 __________________________________________
For the first time in a while, each of the top twelve teams in the PWR win pairwise comparisons with everyone below them. So this week we could actually just use the PWR to order the teams and get the same results.
Anyway, onto filling out the tournament. All four of the current conference leaders (North Dakota, Michigan, Yale and UNH) are in the top twelve, so the field of twelve obviously consists of those four plus at large bids of MSU, Miami, Wisconsin, SCSU and OSU from the West and Boston University, Boston College and Colgate in the East. Given the imbalance between regions, we need to group Ohio State with the Western teams to even things out:
West East
1 North Dakota 5 .624 MiMSMmSCWi | 1 New Hampshire 5 .616 BUYaBCCgOS
2 Michigan 4 .606 MSMmSCWi | 2 Boston Univ 4 .615 YaBCCgOS
3 Mich State 3 .600 __ MmSCWi | 3 Yale 3 .584 __ BCCgOS
4 Miami 2 .569 ____ SCWi | 4 Boston Coll 2 .565 ____ CgOS
5 St Cloud 1 .561 ______ Wi | 5 Colgate 1 .545 ______ OS
6 Wisconsin 0 .553 ________ | 6 Ohio State 0 .544 ________
Going by the comparisons, we give byes to North Dakota, Michigan State, BU and New Hampshire and swap SCSU and Wisconsin with Colgate and Ohio State to get the following first try at the regionals:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .624 Mi | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .616 BU
2 Michigan (C) 0 .606 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .615
3 Mich State (C) 3 .600 MmCgOS | 3 Yale (E) 3 .584 BCSCWi
4 Miami (C) 2 .569 CgOS | 4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .565 SCWi
5 Colgate (E) 1 .545 __ OS | 5 St Cloud (W) 1 .561 __ Wi
6 Ohio State (C) 0 .544 ____ | 6 Wisconsin (W) 0 .553 ____
From the point of view of avoiding interconference matchups, this is a disaster. With seven Western teams in the tournament, the best we can do is one potential second-round matchup; this can be acheived by sending Boston College West instead of Colgate and Ohio State East instead of St. Cloud to give
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .624 Mi | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .616 BU
2 Michigan (C) 0 .606 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .615
3 Mich State (C) 3 .600 BCMmSC | 3 Yale (E) 3 .584 WiCgOS
4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .565 MmSC | 4 Wisconsin (W) 2 .553 CgOS
5 Miami (C) 1 .569 __ SC | 5 Colgate (E) 1 .545 __ OS
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .561 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .544 ____
This gives brackets of
5W Miami (C) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Boston Coll (H) 3E Yale (E)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E Boston Univ (H)
2W Michigan (C) 1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Mich State (C) 4E Wisconsin (W)
6W St Cloud (W) 5E Colgate (E)
The problem now is that while there is only the one potential second-round CCHA matchup, it occurs if the third seed in the regional defeats the sixth, which is considered fairly likely. There's no way to juggle the Western seeds so that there's only one possible intraconference game set up by an upset. So the way around this would be to move Miami into the East regional in place of either Wisconsin or Ohio State. The former option is less disruptive, leading to regions of The only way to get around Michigan or Miami lining up for a second-round battle with Michigan State is to move one of them to the East. To stop this, the committee could switch Miami with either St. Cloud or Ohio State. The former arrangement gives regions of
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .624 Mi | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .616 BU
2 Michigan (C) 0 .606 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .615
3 Mich State (C) 3 .600 BCSCWi | 3 Yale (E) 3 .584 MmCgOS
4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .565 SCWi | 4 Miami (C) 2 .569 CgOS
5 St Cloud (W) 1 .561 __ Wi | 5 Colgate (E) 1 .545 __ OS
6 Wisconsin (W) 0 .553 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .544 ____
Swapping MSU with BC (and also switching Wisconsin and SCSU to maintain the first-round pairings) gives brackets of
5W Wisconsin (W) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Mich State (C) 3E Yale (E)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E Boston Univ (H)
2W Michigan (C) 1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Boston Coll (H) 4E Miami (C)
6W St Cloud (W) 5E Colgate (E)
The only second-round matchup comes if Wisconsin upsets Michigan State. The committee might opt to send teams to other reasons for attendance reasons (like switching Wisconsin and St. Cloud in the first brackets above); the big question is probably whether Colgate or BC is considered a better draw in the East. Yale is probably safe this year, the way they've been drawing in New Haven.
If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.