Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980209.shtml
With only a month remaining until the start of the conference playoffs, let's look ahead once more at the NCAA Tournament selection procedure. Using results through Sunday the 8th from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, we've calculated the pairwise comparisons among the 23 teams with .500 or better records. Here are the results (the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index, independently calculated, can be found on USCHO)
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 North Dakota 22 .620 MSMiBUNHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
2 Mich State 21 .600 __ MiBUNHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
3 Michigan 20 .597 ____ BUNHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
4 Boston Univ 19 .625 ______ NHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
5 New Hampshire 17 .610 ________ Mm__WiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
6 Miami 17 .586 __________ YaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
7 Yale 17 .578 ________NH__ WiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
8 Wisconsin 14 .565 ______________ SCCgBC__CkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
9 St Cloud 13 .552 ________________ Cg__OSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
10 Colgate 13 .544 __________________ BCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
11 Boston Coll 12 .564 ________________SC__ OS__NECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
12 Ohio State 12 .543 ______________Wi______ CkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
13 Clarkson 10 .537 ____________________BC__ __CrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
14 Northeastern 9 .537 ________________________Ck __NMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
15 Cornell 8 .525 __________________________NE __CCPnLSNtRPPvDa
16 Northern Mich 7 .529 ____________________________Cr CC__LSNtRPPvDa
17 CO College 6 .518 ________________________________ PnLSNtRPPvDa
18 Princeton 6 .515 ______________________________NM__ LSNtRPPvDa
19 Lake Superior 4 .505 ____________________________________ NtRPPvDa
20 Notre Dame 3 .517 ______________________________________ RPPvDa
21 RPI 2 .478 ________________________________________ PvDa
22 Providence 1 .496 __________________________________________ Da
23 Dartmouth 0 .453 ____________________________________________
The current leaders in the conference standings are North Dakota, Michigan, Yale and BU. Looking at the comparisons this month, we see that for once the top twelve teams in the PWR do not win PWCs with everyone else. One can get arbitrarily uptight about how big the bubble is, but in any event it comes down to Boston College, Ohio State, Clarkson and maybe Northeastern being considered for the last two at-large bids. If we only conisder the first three teams, each of them wins a comparison with one of the others and loses to the other. The three teams would be ranked based on RPI, with Clarkson at .537 failing to make the cut. If on the other hand we included Northeastern in the mix, the comparisons on the bubble would look like
1 Boston Coll 2 .564 OS__NE
2 Ohio State 2 .543 __ CkNE
3 Northeastern 1 .5371 ____Ck
4 Clarkson 1 .5368 BC__ __
Either way, BC and OSU make the cut. The field of twelve thus consists of NoDak, MSU, Michigan, Miami, Wisconsin, SCSU and OSU from the West and Boston University, Boston College, Yale, New Hampshire and Colgate in the East. Since there are seven Western teams, we need to group the lowest-ranked out with the East initially. Again, this is slightly non-trivial, given the Western comparsions:
1 North Dakota (W) 6 .620 MSMiMmWiSCOS 2 Mich State (C) 5 .600 MiMmWiSCOS 3 Michigan (C) 4 .597 __ MmWiSCOS 4 Miami (C) 3 .586 ____ WiSCOS 5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .565 ______ SC__ 6 St Cloud (W) 1 .552 ________ OS 7 Ohio State (C) 1 .543 ______Wi__
Wisconsin, St. Cloud and Ohio State are even on comparisons, but OSU has the lowest RPI of the three, so they are thrown in with the East teams to get
West East
1 North Dakota 5 .620 MSMiMmWiSC | 1 Boston Univ 5 .625 YaNHCgBCOS
2 Mich State 4 .600 MiMmWiSC | 2 Yale 4 .578 NHCgBCOS
3 Michigan 3 .597 __ MmWiSC | 3 New Hampshire 3 .610 __ CgBCOS
4 Miami 2 .586 ____ WiSC | 4 Colgate 2 .544 ____ BCOS
5 Wisconsin 1 .565 ______ SC | 5 Boston Coll 1 .564 ______ OS
6 St Cloud 0 .552 ________ | 6 Ohio State 0 .543 ________
The pairwise rankings within each region are unequivocal: North Dakota, Michigan State, BU and Yale get the byes (unless Michigan State is the CCHA tournament champion), while Wisconsin and St. Cloud should be swapped for BC and Ohio State. That gives regionals of:
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C) 0 .600 | 2 Yale (E) 0 .578
3 Michigan (C) 3 .597 MmBCOS | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 WiSCCg
4 Miami (C) 2 .586 BCOS | 4 Wisconsin (W) 1 .565 SCCg
5 Boston Coll (H) 1 .564 __ OS | 5 St Cloud (W) 0 .552 __ Cg
6 Ohio State (C) 0 .543 ____ | 6 Colgate (E) 2 .544 ____
Clearly, these are not the six teams to put in the West regional if the NCAA wants to avoid interconference matchups. Instead we should send Ohio State East and bring back one of the WHCA teams. Both attenance considerations and the pairwise comparison between the two indicate that that should be Wisconsin, giving regions of
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C) 0 .600 | 2 Yale (E) 0 .578
3 Michigan (C) 3 .597 MmWiBC | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 SCCgOS
4 Miami (C) 2 .586 WiBC | 4 St Cloud (W) 2 .552 CgOS
5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .565 __ BC | 5 Colgate (E) 1 .544 __ OS
6 Boston Coll (H) 0 .564 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .543 ____
These naturally seed into the following brackets:
5W Wisconsin (W) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Miami (C) 3E New Hampshire (H)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E Yale (E)
2W Mich State (C) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E St Cloud (W)
6W Boston Coll (H) 5E Colgate (E)
There is one possible second-round matchup of CCHA teams. One potential intraconference game in the second round is inevitable, but in this case it arises if the third seed in the regional defeats the sixth, which is considered fairly likely. The only way to get around Michigan or Miami lining up for a second-round battle with Michigan State is to move one of them to the East. To stop this, the committee could switch Miami with either St. Cloud or Ohio State. The former arrangement gives regions of
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C) 0 .600 | 2 Yale (E) 0 .578
3 Michigan (C) 3 .597 WiBCSC | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 MmCgOS
4 Wisconsin (W) 2 .565 BCSC | 4 Miami (C) 2 .586 CgOS
5 Boston Coll (H) 1 .564 __ SC | 5 Colgate (E) 1 .544 __ OS
6 St Cloud (W) 0 .552 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .543 ____
Swapping Michigan with Wisconsin (and also switching SCSU and BC to maintain the first-round pairings) gives a bracket of
5W St Cloud (W) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Michigan (C) 3E New Hampshire (H)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E Yale (E)
2W Mich State (C) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Wisconsin (W) 4E Miami (C)
6W Boston Coll (H) 5E Colgate (E)
Now the only second-round matchup comes if St. Clous upsets Michigan. If, on the other hand Ohio State is kept west instead of SCSU (which would help with the attendance if the West regional is not already sold out), the regions look like
West East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS | 1 Boston Univ (H) 1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C) 0 .600 | 2 Yale (E) 0 .578
3 Michigan (C) 3 .597 WiBCOS | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 MmSCCg
4 Wisconsin (W) 1 .565 BC__ | 4 Miami (C) 2 .586 SCCg
5 Boston Coll (H) 1 .564 __ OS | 5 St Cloud (W) 1 .552 __ Cg
6 Ohio State (C) 1 .543 Wi__ | 6 Colgate (E) 0 .544 ____
Switching Michigan with Wisconsin in the West and St. Cloud with Colgate in the East gives brackets of
5W Boston Coll (H) 6E St Cloud (W)
4W Michigan (C) 3E New Hampshire (H)
1W North Dakota (W) 2E Yale (E)
2W Mich State (C) 1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Wisconsin (W) 4E Miami (C)
6W Ohio State (C) 5E Colgate (E)
Again, only an upset (in this case OSU over Wisconsin) would give a second-round conference matchup. I'd say that the committee, if they were willing to ship Miami East in the first place, would go with this last bracket, unless they knew the West regional would sell out regardless.
If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.