If the season ended today, 1999 February 15

© 1999, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1999/pairwise.990215.shtml

Remember, you can go through this process interactively using the "You Are The Committee" script.

Once again, it's time to practice applying the NCAA Tournament selection procedure to the results to date from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule. Calculating the various selection criteria and performing pairwise comparisons among the 26 tournament-eligible teams with overall records at or above .500, which are known as teams under consideration, we obtain the following results:

    Team         PWR  RPI                  Comparisons Won
 1 North Dakota   25 .657   MeNHMSCCCkQnBCSLDUPnMiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 2 Maine          24 .633 __  NHMSCCCkQnBCSLDUPnMiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 3 New Hampshire  23 .621 ____  MSCCCkQnBCSLDUPnMiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 4 Mich State     22 .601 ______  CCCkQnBCSLDUPnMiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 5 CO College     20 .586 ________  CkQnBCSLDU__MiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 6 Clarkson       20 .576 __________  QnBCSLDUPnMiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 7 Quinnipiac     18 .537 ____________  BCSL__PnMiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 8 Boston Coll    16 .575 ______________  SL____MiOSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
 9 St Lawrence    16 .554 ________________  DUPn__OSNtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
10 Denver U       16 .546 ____________QnBC__  Pn__OS__NMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
11 Princeton      15 .541 ________CC____BC____  Mi____NMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
12 Michigan       15 .558 ________________SLDU__  OSNtNMPv__CtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
13 Ohio State     14 .544 ____________________Pn__  NtNMPvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
14 Notre Dame     12 .552 __________________DUPn____  NMPv__CtRPMLFSCgCrAA__Io
15 Northern Mich  11 .543 ____________________________  PvNiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
16 Providence     10 .527 ______________________________  NiCtRPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
17 Niagara         9 .479 ______________________Mi__Nt____  Ct____FSCgCrAAHCIo
18 Connecticut     8 .521 __________________________________  RPMLFSCgCrAAHCIo
19 RPI             8 .519 ________________________________Ni__  MLFSCgCrAAHCIo
20 Mass-Lowell     7 .517 ________________________________Ni____  FSCgCrAAHCIo
21 Ferris State    5 .512 ________________________________________  CgCrAAHCIo
22 Colgate         4 .503 __________________________________________  CrAAHCIo
23 Cornell         3 .500 ____________________________________________  AAHCIo
24 AK-Anchorage    2 .462 ______________________________________________  HCIo
25 Holy Cross      2 .459 __________________________Nt____________________  Io
26 Iona            0 .423 __________________________________________________  
    

As we did last week, we assign automatic bids to the current leaders in the four major conferences, which are North Dakota, Michigan State, Maine and St. Lawrence (who still hold the advantage over Clarkson in the ECAC Tiebreaker System) and we also exclude the four MAAC teams from the list on the basis of a lack of competative equity with the other four conferences based on the following statistics:

                vs Indies    vs Army    vs Niagara   vs AFA      vs Mankato
      Avg RPI   PF-PA  Pct  PF-PA  Pct  PF-PA  Pct  PF-PA Pct    PF-PA Pct
 HE    .528     12- 2 .857  10-0 1.000   0- 2 .000   2-0  1.000   0-0  .---
 WCHA  .506     28- 8 .778   0-0  .---   0- 0 .---  10-0  1.000  18-8  .692
 CCHA  .504      5- 5 .500   0-0  .---   2- 4 .333   0-0   .---   3-1  .750
 ECAC  .497     28-10 .737  10-0 1.000  10-10 .500   2-0  1.000   6-0 1.000
 MAAC  .446      7-19 .269   4-4  .500   0- 2 .000   3-5   .350   0-8  .000

Once again this means denying Quinnipiac a bid, but as the Braves have now supplemented a win over Army (.346, 50th out of 51 teams in the Ratings Percentage Index) with a split against Air Force (.441 and #43) as their only out-of-conference games, I think the committee will not hesitate to do that.

Now, things get tricky when it comes to assigning the at-large bids, so I want to go through that process carefully. First of all, here are the results of the comparisons among teams in contention for the eight at-large bids:

   Team          lPWR RPI          Comps Won
 1 New Hampshire  17 .621 CCCkDUPnBCMiOSNtNMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
 2 CO College     15 .586   CkDU__BCMiOSNtNMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
 3 Clarkson       15 .576 __  DUPnBCMiOSNtNMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
 4 Denver U       12 .546 ____  PnBC__OS__NMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
 5 Princeton      12 .541 CC____  BCMi____NMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
 6 Boston Coll    12 .575 ________  MiOSNtNMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
 7 Michigan       11 .558 ____DU____  OSNtNMPvRP__MLFSCgCrAA
 8 Ohio State     11 .544 ______Pn____  NtNMPvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA

 9 Notre Dame     10 .552 ____DUPn______  NMPvRP__MLFSCgCrAA
10 Northern Mich   8 .543 ________________  PvRPNiMLFSCgCrAA
11 Providence      7 .527 __________________  RPNiMLFSCgCrAA
12 RPI             6 .519 ____________________  NiMLFSCgCrAA
13 Niagara         6 .479 __________Mi__Nt______  __FSCgCrAA
14 Mass-Lowell     5 .517 ______________________Ni  FSCgCrAA
15 Ferris State    3 .512 __________________________  CgCrAA
16 Colgate         2 .503 ____________________________  CrAA
17 Cornell         1 .500 ______________________________  AA
18 AK-Anchorage    0 .462 ________________________________
    

Now, it's important to realize that the committee does not simply choose the top teams based on their total number of comparisons won (which is their Pairwise Rating or PWR). Instead they give bids to teams that are "obviously" beating out the others, boot out those that are obviously losing the most comparisons, and look carefully at the comparisons among the "bubble" teams in the middle. This is a somewhat imprecise algorithm, but in past years it hasn't mattered. However, due to the unusual pattern of comparison wins for Division I Independent Niagara, who still win comparisons with several teams which beat a number of teams which in turn beat Niagara themselves, it may do so this season. So I want to describe in detail one deterministic algorithm, which is in fact the one used by my "You Are The Committee" script to choose the teams if the "automatic" button is pressed. This method involves sorting the bubble teams (initially everyone in contention for an at-large berth), removing the team or teams at the top or bottom of the bubble (whichever keeps the number of bubble teams closest to twice the number of remaining at-large bids), and re-sorting that new bubble, repeating the process until everyone is either in or out.

First of all, UNH wins comparisons with everyone left, so they're clearly in, and Ferris, Colgate, Cornell and Anchorage lose to everyone else, so they're out. That leaves 13 teams in the middle fighting for seven slots; Colorado College and Clarkson are tied for the most comparison wins among the 13, and Lowell have the fewest, so if we put CC and Clarkson in and Lowell out (which leaves five teams each above and below the cutoff), we have the following teams left on the bubble:

   Team          lPWR RPI      Comps Won
 1 Denver U        7 .546   BC__OSPn__NMPvNiRP
 2 Boston Coll     7 .575 __  MiOS__NtNMPvNiRP
 3 Michigan        6 .558 DU__  OS__NtNMPv__RP
 4 Ohio State      6 .544 ______  PnNtNMPvNiRP
 5 Princeton       6 .541 __BCMi__  __NMPvNiRP
    
 6 Notre Dame      5 .552 DU______Pn  NMPv__RP
 7 Northern Mich   3 .543 ____________  PvNiRP
 8 Providence      2 .527 ______________  NiRP
 9 Niagara         2 .479 ____Mi____Nt____  __
10 RPI             1 .519 ________________Ni
    

Dropping the bottom team, Rensselaer, leaves four teams below the cutoff, and then putting DU and BC into the tournament leaves three teams above. Now the redefined bubble looks like:

   Team          lPWR RPI  Comps Won
 1 Ohio State      5 .544   Pn__NtNMNiPv
 2 Princeton       4 .541 __  Mi__NMNiPv
 3 Michigan        4 .558 OS__  NtNM__Pv
    
 4 Notre Dame      3 .552 __Pn__  NM__Pv
 5 Northern Mich   2 .543 ________  NiPv
 6 Niagara         2 .479 ____MiNt__  __
 7 Providence      1 .527 __________Ni
    

Dropping Providence again centers the cutoff within the bubble:

   Team          lPWR RPI  Comps Won
 1 Ohio State      4 .544   Pn__NiNtNM
 2 Princeton       3 .541 __  MiNi__NM
 3 Michigan        3 .558 OS__  __NtNM
    
 4 Niagara         2 .479 ____Mi  Nt__
 5 Notre Dame      2 .552 __Pn____  NM
 6 Northern Mich   1 .543 ______Ni__
    

Since there's one team at the top and one at the bottom, we again keep the cutoff centered by putting OSU in the tourney and NMU out:

   Team          lPWR RPI Comps Won
 1 Princeton       2 .541   NiMi__
 2 Niagara         2 .479 __  MiNt

 3 Michigan        1 .558 ____  Nt
 4 Notre Dame      1 .552 Pn____
    

Finally the bubble has become small enough that there is only one division left to make: the teams winning two comparisons (Princeton and Niagara) are in and those winning only one (Michigan and Notre Dame) are out. Niagara, although seemingly five spots off the pace, have managed to percolate up at each stage thanks to their comparison wins over eventual final bubble teams Michigan and Notre Dame.

I can't say if the committee will do anything like this iterative bubble redefinition, and any one-step definition and sorting of the bubble will place Michigan in the tournament in their place, but note that the individual pairwise comparison between the two indicates that Niagara stacks up better than Michigan. At any rate, since last week's "If the Season Ended Today" eschewed iterative redefinition and excluded the Purple Eagles, let's throw them into the field this time. If you haven't been keeping score, this means that at-large bids have gone to Colorado College and Denver from the WCHA, Ohio State from the CCHA, Clarkson and Princeton from the ECAC, New Hampshire and Boston College from Hockey East, and Independent Niagara. This is seven Eastern teams if we consider Niagara to come from the East. Since the Purple Eagles lose pairwise comparisons to all of the other Eastern teams (and since they may someday end up in the CCHA anyway), we consider them an honorary Western team for the purposes of seeding the tournament:

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota    5 .657 MSCCDUOSNi | 1 Maine           5 .633 NHCkBCSLPn
2 Mich State      4 .601   CCDUOSNi | 2 New Hampshire   4 .621   CkBCSLPn
3 CO College      3 .586 __  DUOSNi | 3 Clarkson        3 .576 __  BCSLPn
4 Denver U        2 .546 ____  OSNi | 4 Boston Coll     1 .575 ____  SL__
5 Ohio State      1 .544 ______  __ | 5 St Lawrence     1 .554 ______  Pn
6 Niagara         0 .479 ________   | 6 Princeton       1 .541 ____BC__ 

NoDak and MSU in the West, and Maine and New Hampshire in the East, earn the two bye seeds in their respective regionals by winning comparisons with all of the other teams in their regions. Now we need to swap two pairs of teams between the two regions. In the East the bottom three teams are in a classic rock-scissors-paper situation, with each winning and losing one comparison against the others. BC has the best RPI of those three, and is clearly the best team, attendance-wise, to place in the Regional in nearby Worcester, so they would almost certainly stay East along with Clarkson, although the presence of two Hockey East teams in the bye seeds means the Golden Eagles will inevitably be looking at a second-round intraconference game if they advance. In the West, Niagara and Ohio State are clearly the lowest two on the basis of comparisons, although keeping three WCHA teams in the Western Regional will also neccessitate a potential second-round conference matchup. This time I'm guessing the committee would decided Ohio State is at least as good a draw as Denver at the Madison, Wisconsin site for the regional, and ship DU East instead of OSU. This makes the regionals look like this:

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .657 MS       | 1 Maine (H)          1 .633 NH
2 Mich State (C)   0 .601          | 2 New Hampshire (H)  0 .621

3 CO College (W)   2 .586   SLOS__ | 3 Clarkson (E)       3 .576 DUBCNi
4 St Lawrence (E)  2 .554 __  OSPn | 4 Denver U (W)       2 .546   BCNi
5 Ohio State (C)   1 .544 ____  Pn | 5 Boston Coll (H)    1 .575 __  Ni
6 Princeton (E)    1 .541 CC____   | 6 Niagara (I)        0 .479 ____
    

The only first- or second-round game between teams in the same conference which results from the natural seedings is BC-Maine, and as noted before, this is inevitable if we keep Boston College in the East Regional. So the final brackets are:

5W Ohio State (C)                  6E Niagara (I)
4W St Lawrence (E)                 3E Clarkson (E)
     1W North Dakota (W) --+--2E New Hampshire (H)
                           |
     2W Mich State (C)   --+--1E Maine (H)
3W Princeton (E)                   4E Denver U (W)
6W CO College (W)                  5E Boston Coll (H)

Note that Princeton and CC have switched seeds because Princeton wins individual pairwise comparison. I don't know if the committee would do things this way, but given their emphasis on pairings being more important than seedings, and the use of individual comparisons between teams, it seems reasonable.

The Gory Details

You also can look at the detailed description of each of the pairwise comparisons, if you're so inclined.


Last Modified: 2011 October 9

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

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