If the season ended today, 1998 February 16

© 1998, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980216.shtml

Now it's time for this week's look at the NCAA Tournament selection procedure. Using results through Sunday the 15th from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, we've calculated the pairwise comparisons among the 23 teams with .500 or better records. Here are the results (the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index, independently calculated, can be found on USCHO)

    Team         PWR  RPI                  Comparisons Won
 1 North Dakota   22 .624 MiNHMSBUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 2 Michigan       21 .606   NHMSBUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 3 New Hampshire  20 .616 __  MSBUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 4 Mich State     19 .600 ____  BUYaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 5 Boston Univ    18 .615 ______  YaBCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 6 Yale           17 .584 ________  BCMmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 7 Boston Coll    16 .565 __________  MmSCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 8 Miami          15 .569 ____________  SCWiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
 9 St Cloud       14 .561 ______________  WiCgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
10 Wisconsin      13 .553 ________________  CgOSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
11 Colgate        12 .545 __________________  OSCkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
12 Ohio State     11 .544 ____________________  CkNMNECCCrMDPnLSRPPvDa
13 Clarkson        9 .529 ______________________  NMNECCCr__PnLSRPPvDa
14 Northern Mich   7 .527 ________________________  NECCCr____LSRPPvDa
15 Northeastern    7 .513 __________________________  CC__MDPnLSRPPvDa
16 CO College      7 .520 ____________________________  CrMDPnLSRPPvDa
17 Cornell         6 .519 __________________________NE__  MDPnLS__PvDa
18 Minn-Duluth     6 .509 ______________________CkNM______  __LSRPPvDa
19 Princeton       5 .509 ________________________NM______MD  __RPPvDa
20 Lake Superior   4 .501 __________________________________Pn  RPPvDa
21 RPI             3 .493 ______________________________Cr______  PvDa
22 Providence      1 .495 ________________________________________  Da
23 Dartmouth       0 .469 __________________________________________  

For the first time in a while, each of the top twelve teams in the PWR win pairwise comparisons with everyone below them. So this week we could actually just use the PWR to order the teams and get the same results.

Anyway, onto filling out the tournament. All four of the current conference leaders (North Dakota, Michigan, Yale and UNH) are in the top twelve, so the field of twelve obviously consists of those four plus at large bids of MSU, Miami, Wisconsin, SCSU and OSU from the West and Boston University, Boston College and Colgate in the East. Given the imbalance between regions, we need to group Ohio State with the Western teams to even things out:

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota   5 .624 MiMSMmSCWi | 1 New Hampshire  5 .616 BUYaBCCgOS
2 Michigan       4 .606   MSMmSCWi | 2 Boston Univ    4 .615   YaBCCgOS
3 Mich State     3 .600 __  MmSCWi | 3 Yale           3 .584 __  BCCgOS
4 Miami          2 .569 ____  SCWi | 4 Boston Coll    2 .565 ____  CgOS
5 St Cloud       1 .561 ______  Wi | 5 Colgate        1 .545 ______  OS
6 Wisconsin      0 .553 ________   | 6 Ohio State     0 .544 ________
    

Going by the comparisons, we give byes to North Dakota, Michigan State, BU and New Hampshire and swap SCSU and Wisconsin with Colgate and Ohio State to get the following first try at the regionals:

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W)   1 .624 Mi     | 1 New Hampshire (H)  1 .616 BU
2 Michigan (C)       0 .606        | 2 Boston Univ (H)    0 .615

3 Mich State (C)     3 .600 MmCgOS | 3 Yale (E)           3 .584 BCSCWi
4 Miami (C)          2 .569   CgOS | 4 Boston Coll (H)    2 .565   SCWi
5 Colgate (E)        1 .545 __  OS | 5 St Cloud (W)       1 .561 __  Wi
6 Ohio State (C)     0 .544 ____   | 6 Wisconsin (W)      0 .553 ____
    

From the point of view of avoiding interconference matchups, this is a disaster. With seven Western teams in the tournament, the best we can do is one potential second-round matchup; this can be acheived by sending Boston College West instead of Colgate and Ohio State East instead of St. Cloud to give

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W)   1 .624 Mi     | 1 New Hampshire (H)  1 .616 BU
2 Michigan (C)       0 .606        | 2 Boston Univ (H)    0 .615

3 Mich State (C)     3 .600 BCMmSC | 3 Yale (E)           3 .584 WiCgOS
4 Boston Coll (H)    2 .565   MmSC | 4 Wisconsin (W)      2 .553   CgOS
5 Miami (C)          1 .569 __  SC | 5 Colgate (E)        1 .545 __  OS
6 St Cloud (W)       0 .561 ____   | 6 Ohio State (C)     0 .544 ____
    

This gives brackets of

5W Miami (C)                        6E Ohio State (C)
4W Boston Coll (H)                  3E Yale (E)
      1W North Dakota (W)   2E Boston Univ (H)

      2W Michigan (C)       1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Mich State (C)                   4E Wisconsin (W)
6W St Cloud (W)                     5E Colgate (E)
    

The problem now is that while there is only the one potential second-round CCHA matchup, it occurs if the third seed in the regional defeats the sixth, which is considered fairly likely. There's no way to juggle the Western seeds so that there's only one possible intraconference game set up by an upset. So the way around this would be to move Miami into the East regional in place of either Wisconsin or Ohio State. The former option is less disruptive, leading to regions of The only way to get around Michigan or Miami lining up for a second-round battle with Michigan State is to move one of them to the East. To stop this, the committee could switch Miami with either St. Cloud or Ohio State. The former arrangement gives regions of

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W)   1 .624 Mi     | 1 New Hampshire (H)  1 .616 BU
2 Michigan (C)       0 .606        | 2 Boston Univ (H)    0 .615

3 Mich State (C)     3 .600 BCSCWi | 3 Yale (E)           3 .584 MmCgOS
4 Boston Coll (H)    2 .565   SCWi | 4 Miami (C)          2 .569   CgOS
5 St Cloud (W)       1 .561 __  Wi | 5 Colgate (E)        1 .545 __  OS
6 Wisconsin (W)      0 .553 ____   | 6 Ohio State (C)     0 .544 ____

Swapping MSU with BC (and also switching Wisconsin and SCSU to maintain the first-round pairings) gives brackets of

5W Wisconsin (W)                   6E Ohio State (C)
4W Mich State (C)                  3E Yale (E)
      1W North Dakota (W)   2E Boston Univ (H)

      2W Michigan (C)       1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Boston Coll (H)                 4E Miami (C)     
6W St Cloud (W)                    5E Colgate (E)
    

The only second-round matchup comes if Wisconsin upsets Michigan State. The committee might opt to send teams to other reasons for attendance reasons (like switching Wisconsin and St. Cloud in the first brackets above); the big question is probably whether Colgate or BC is considered a better draw in the East. Yale is probably safe this year, the way they've been drawing in New Haven.

The Gory Details

If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.


Last Modified: 2011 October 9

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

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