If the season ended today, 1998 February 9

© 1998, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980209.shtml

With only a month remaining until the start of the conference playoffs, let's look ahead once more at the NCAA Tournament selection procedure. Using results through Sunday the 8th from US College Hockey Online's Division I Composite Schedule, we've calculated the pairwise comparisons among the 23 teams with .500 or better records. Here are the results (the current pairwise rankings and Ratings Percentage Index, independently calculated, can be found on USCHO)

    Team         PWR  RPI                  Comparisons Won
 1 North Dakota   22 .620   MSMiBUNHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 2 Mich State     21 .600 __  MiBUNHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 3 Michigan       20 .597 ____  BUNHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 4 Boston Univ    19 .625 ______  NHMmYaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 5 New Hampshire  17 .610 ________  Mm__WiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 6 Miami          17 .586 __________  YaWiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 7 Yale           17 .578 ________NH__  WiSCCgBCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 8 Wisconsin      14 .565 ______________  SCCgBC__CkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
 9 St Cloud       13 .552 ________________  Cg__OSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
10 Colgate        13 .544 __________________  BCOSCkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
11 Boston Coll    12 .564 ________________SC__  OS__NECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
12 Ohio State     12 .543 ______________Wi______  CkNECrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
13 Clarkson       10 .537 ____________________BC__  __CrNMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
14 Northeastern    9 .537 ________________________Ck  __NMCCPnLSNtRPPvDa
15 Cornell         8 .525 __________________________NE  __CCPnLSNtRPPvDa
16 Northern Mich   7 .529 ____________________________Cr  CC__LSNtRPPvDa
17 CO College      6 .518 ________________________________  PnLSNtRPPvDa
18 Princeton       6 .515 ______________________________NM__  LSNtRPPvDa
19 Lake Superior   4 .505 ____________________________________  NtRPPvDa
20 Notre Dame      3 .517 ______________________________________  RPPvDa
21 RPI             2 .478 ________________________________________  PvDa
22 Providence      1 .496 __________________________________________  Da
23 Dartmouth       0 .453 ____________________________________________  

The current leaders in the conference standings are North Dakota, Michigan, Yale and BU. Looking at the comparisons this month, we see that for once the top twelve teams in the PWR do not win PWCs with everyone else. One can get arbitrarily uptight about how big the bubble is, but in any event it comes down to Boston College, Ohio State, Clarkson and maybe Northeastern being considered for the last two at-large bids. If we only conisder the first three teams, each of them wins a comparison with one of the others and loses to the other. The three teams would be ranked based on RPI, with Clarkson at .537 failing to make the cut. If on the other hand we included Northeastern in the mix, the comparisons on the bubble would look like

1 Boston Coll    2 .564    OS__NE
2 Ohio State     2 .543  __  CkNE
3 Northeastern   1 .5371 ____Ck  
4 Clarkson       1 .5368 BC__  __
    

Either way, BC and OSU make the cut. The field of twelve thus consists of NoDak, MSU, Michigan, Miami, Wisconsin, SCSU and OSU from the West and Boston University, Boston College, Yale, New Hampshire and Colgate in the East. Since there are seven Western teams, we need to group the lowest-ranked out with the East initially. Again, this is slightly non-trivial, given the Western comparsions:

1 North Dakota (W)   6 .620 MSMiMmWiSCOS
2 Mich State (C)     5 .600   MiMmWiSCOS
3 Michigan (C)       4 .597 __  MmWiSCOS
4 Miami (C)          3 .586 ____  WiSCOS
5 Wisconsin (W)      1 .565 ______  SC__
6 St Cloud (W)       1 .552 ________  OS
7 Ohio State (C)     1 .543 ______Wi__  

Wisconsin, St. Cloud and Ohio State are even on comparisons, but OSU has the lowest RPI of the three, so they are thrown in with the East teams to get

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota 5 .620 MSMiMmWiSC | 1 Boston Univ   5 .625 YaNHCgBCOS
2 Mich State   4 .600   MiMmWiSC | 2 Yale          4 .578   NHCgBCOS
3 Michigan     3 .597 __  MmWiSC | 3 New Hampshire 3 .610 __  CgBCOS
4 Miami        2 .586 ____  WiSC | 4 Colgate       2 .544 ____  BCOS
5 Wisconsin    1 .565 ______  SC | 5 Boston Coll   1 .564 ______  OS
6 St Cloud     0 .552 ________   | 6 Ohio State    0 .543 ________
    

The pairwise rankings within each region are unequivocal: North Dakota, Michigan State, BU and Yale get the byes (unless Michigan State is the CCHA tournament champion), while Wisconsin and St. Cloud should be swapped for BC and Ohio State. That gives regionals of:

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS     | 1 Boston Univ (H)   1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C)   0 .600        | 2 Yale (E)          0 .578   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .597 MmBCOS | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 WiSCCg
4 Miami (C)        2 .586   BCOS | 4 Wisconsin (W)     1 .565   SCCg
5 Boston Coll (H)  1 .564 __  OS | 5 St Cloud (W)      0 .552 __  Cg
6 Ohio State (C)   0 .543 ____   | 6 Colgate (E)       2 .544 ____  
    

Clearly, these are not the six teams to put in the West regional if the NCAA wants to avoid interconference matchups. Instead we should send Ohio State East and bring back one of the WHCA teams. Both attenance considerations and the pairwise comparison between the two indicate that that should be Wisconsin, giving regions of

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS     | 1 Boston Univ (H)   1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C)   0 .600        | 2 Yale (E)          0 .578   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .597 MmWiBC | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 SCCgOS
4 Miami (C)        2 .586   WiBC | 4 St Cloud (W)      2 .552   CgOS
5 Wisconsin (W)    1 .565 __  BC | 5 Colgate (E)       1 .544 __  OS
6 Boston Coll (H)  0 .564 ____   | 6 Ohio State (C)    0 .543 ____  
    

These naturally seed into the following brackets:

5W Wisconsin (W)                    6E Ohio State (C)
4W Miami (C)                        3E New Hampshire (H)
      1W North Dakota (W)   2E Yale (E)

      2W Mich State (C)     1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Michigan (C)                     4E St Cloud (W)
6W Boston Coll (H)                  5E Colgate (E)
    

There is one possible second-round matchup of CCHA teams. One potential intraconference game in the second round is inevitable, but in this case it arises if the third seed in the regional defeats the sixth, which is considered fairly likely. The only way to get around Michigan or Miami lining up for a second-round battle with Michigan State is to move one of them to the East. To stop this, the committee could switch Miami with either St. Cloud or Ohio State. The former arrangement gives regions of

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS     | 1 Boston Univ (H)   1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C)   0 .600        | 2 Yale (E)          0 .578   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .597 WiBCSC | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 MmCgOS
4 Wisconsin (W)    2 .565   BCSC | 4 Miami (C)         2 .586   CgOS
5 Boston Coll (H)  1 .564 __  SC | 5 Colgate (E)       1 .544 __  OS
6 St Cloud (W)     0 .552 ____   | 6 Ohio State (C)    0 .543 ____  
    

Swapping Michigan with Wisconsin (and also switching SCSU and BC to maintain the first-round pairings) gives a bracket of

5W St Cloud (W)                    6E Ohio State (C)
4W Michigan (C)                    3E New Hampshire (H)
      1W North Dakota (W)   2E Yale (E)

      2W Mich State (C)     1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Wisconsin (W)                   4E Miami (C)     
6W Boston Coll (H)                 5E Colgate (E)
    

Now the only second-round matchup comes if St. Clous upsets Michigan. If, on the other hand Ohio State is kept west instead of SCSU (which would help with the attendance if the West regional is not already sold out), the regions look like

      West                                  East
1 North Dakota (W) 1 .620 MS     | 1 Boston Univ (H)   1 .625 Ya
2 Mich State (C)   0 .600        | 2 Yale (E)          0 .578   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .597 WiBCOS | 3 New Hampshire (H) 3 .610 MmSCCg
4 Wisconsin (W)    1 .565   BC__ | 4 Miami (C)         2 .586   SCCg
5 Boston Coll (H)  1 .564 __  OS | 5 St Cloud (W)      1 .552 __  Cg
6 Ohio State (C)   1 .543 Wi__   | 6 Colgate (E)       0 .544 ____
    

Switching Michigan with Wisconsin in the West and St. Cloud with Colgate in the East gives brackets of

5W Boston Coll (H)                 6E St Cloud (W) 
4W Michigan (C)                    3E New Hampshire (H)
      1W North Dakota (W)   2E Yale (E)

      2W Mich State (C)     1E Boston Univ (H)
3W Wisconsin (W)                   4E Miami (C)     
6W Ohio State (C)                  5E Colgate (E)
    

Again, only an upset (in this case OSU over Wisconsin) would give a second-round conference matchup. I'd say that the committee, if they were willing to ship Miami East in the first place, would go with this last bracket, unless they knew the West regional would sell out regardless.

The Gory Details

If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way it did, here they are.


Last Modified: 2011 October 9

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

HTML 4.0 compliant CSS2 compliant