If the season ended today, 1998 January 26

© 1998, Joe Schlobotnik (archives)

URL for this frameset: http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980126.shtml

Note that these calculations were done, and this piece written, before I learned that Mankato State is in fact eligible for the NCAAs, and included in all parts of the selection procedure.

Okay, so the word from the NCAA is that games involving Mankato State and Nebraska-Omaha do not count for the NCAA Tournament selection procedure, and so with a bit more confidence we begin this week's dry run through the procedure. Once again, the selection criteria have been calculated using game results from the Division I Composite Schedule on US College Hockey Online. The ratings percentage index thus calculated jibes with USCHO's current RPI as of Sunday night.

We have 24 Teams Under Consideration this week, with the following pairwise comparisons:

    Team         PWR  RPI                  Comparisons Won
 1 Mich State     23 .593   NHNDBUMiMmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 2 New Hampshire  21 .626 __  NDBUMiMm__WiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 3 North Dakota   21 .617 ____  BUMiMmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 4 Boston Univ    20 .621 ______  MiMmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 5 Michigan       19 .589 ________  MmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 6 Miami          18 .588 __________  YaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 7 Yale           17 .552 __NH________  Wi__CgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 8 Wisconsin      16 .580 ______________  BCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
 9 Boston Coll    16 .572 ____________Ya__  CgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
10 Colgate        14 .555 __________________  SCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
11 St Cloud       13 .547 ____________________  OSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
12 Ohio State     12 .541 ______________________  NENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
13 Northeastern   11 .539 ________________________  NMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
14 Northern Mich   9 .537 __________________________  LSCrCkPvFSNtCC__RPML
15 Lake Superior   9 .522 ____________________________  CrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
16 Cornell         7 .523 ______________________________  CkPv__NtCCPnRPML
17 Clarkson        6 .520 ________________________________  PvFS__CCPnRPML
18 Providence      5 .517 __________________________________  FS__CCPnRPML
19 Ferris State    5 .513 ______________________________Cr____  Nt__PnRPML
20 Notre Dame      4 .529 ________________________________CkPv__  CC__RP__
21 CO College      4 .519 ____________________________________FS__  PnRPML
22 Princeton       4 .511 __________________________NM__________Nt__  RPML
23 RPI             1 .488 ____________________________________________  ML
24 Mass-Lowell     1 .500 ______________________________________Nt______  

The regular season and tournament champions of each conference are entitled to automatic berths; we can't predict the outcomes of the tournaments, but for the purposes of this simulation, let's say the regular season titles go to the four teams currently leading their conferences in winning percentage: North Dakota, Michigan, Yale and New Hampshire. There's no problem filling out the tourney field, as eight more teams beat all of the other TUCs: North Dakota, Miami, Wisconsin, St. Cloud and Ohio State in the West, and BU, Yale, BC and Colgate in the West. Once again the field of twelve contains seven Western teams and only five from the East, so we move Ohio State into the East before determining which teams to swap. Looking at the comparisons within each region, we have

      West                                  East
1 Mich State   5 .593 NDMiMmWiSC | 1 New Hampshire 4 .626   BUBC__CgOS
2 North Dakota 4 .617   MiMmWiSC | 2 Boston Univ   4 .621 __  BCYaCgOS
3 Michigan     3 .589 __  MmWiSC | 3 Boston Coll   3 .572 ____  YaCgOS
4 Miami        2 .588 ____  WiSC | 4 Yale          3 .552 NH____  CgOS
5 Wisconsin    1 .580 ______  SC | 5 Colgate       1 .555 ________  OS
6 St Cloud     0 .547 ________   | 6 Ohio State    0 .541 __________   
    

Based on the comparisons, the byes should be given to Michigan State and North Dakota in the West, and UNH and BU in the East, although tournament wins by Michigan or Yale would change that. Also going by the numbers, we should ship Colgate and Ohio State to the West and Wisconsin and St. Cloud to the East. If we do this:

      West                                  East
1 Mich State (C)   1 .593 ND    | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617       | 2 Boston Univ (H)   0 .621   

3 Michigan (C)    3 .589 MmCgOS | 3 Wisconsin (W)     2 .580   BC__SC
4 Miami (C)       2 .588   CgOS | 4 Boston Coll (H)   2 .572 __  YaSC
5 Colgate (E)     1 .555 __  OS | 5 Yale (E)          2 .552 Wi__  SC
6 Ohio State (C)  0 .541 ______ | 6 St Cloud (W)      0 .547 ______     
    

Instant disaster! Not only do two CCHA teams (Michigan and Ohio State) play in the first round, but with three non-bye teams from the CCHA in the Western regional, there's no way to avoid a first-round matchup. So clearly we must send at least one CCHA team East and bring another WCHA team to the West regional. Michigan is the host team, so they must stay in the West, and the comparisons say Ohio State should be the one to go East. Wisconsin beats SCSU on criteria, plus they should help the gate in Ann Arbor, so let's take them back to the West to get

      West                                  East
1 Mich State (C)   1 .593 ND     | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617        | 2 Boston Univ (H)   0 .621   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .589 MmWiCg | 3 Boston Coll (H)   3 .572 YaSCOS
4 Miami (C)        2 .588   WiCg | 4 Yale (E)          2 .552   SCOS
5 Wisconsin (W)    1 .580 __  Cg | 5 St Cloud (W)      1 .547 __  OS      
6 Colgate (E)      0 .555 ____   | 6 Ohio State (C)    0 .541 ____  
    

Now we have a good candidate bracket. There is one potential second-round conference matchup in the West (Michigan State-Miami) and one in the East (BC-BU). It's unavoidable that there be one potential intraconference matchup in the West, just given the makeup of the field, but we can fix the one in the East. The Eastern matchup, as we have it now, will occur if BC, the third seed in the regional, beats Ohio State, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament. And with both Eastern byes going to Hockey East squads, changing the seeding of the other four teams in that regional doesn't help avoid it. So if avoiding second-round matchups is important, the committee has to send BC out West, even though the numbers, and potentially the attendance prospects in Albany, argue for keeping them in the East over Colgate. Ultimately, it's a judgement call, but let's assume they do switch the Eagles and Red Raiders, giving

      West                                  East
1 Mich State (C)   1 .593 ND     | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617        | 2 Boston Univ (H)   0 .621   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .589 MmWiBC | 3 Yale (E)          3 .552 CgSCOS
4 Miami (C)        2 .588   WiBC | 4 Colgate (E)       2 .555   SCOS
5 Wisconsin (W)    1 .580 __  BC | 5 St Cloud (W)      1 .547 __  OS      
6 Boston Coll (H)  0 .572 ____   | 6 Ohio State (C)    0 .541 ____  
    

which produces the following brackets:

5W Wisconsin (W)                    6E Ohio State (C)
4W Miami (C)                        3E Yale (E)
      1W Mich State (C)    2E Boston Univ (H)

      2W North Dakota (W)  1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Michigan (C)                     4E Colgate (E)
6W Boston Coll (H)                  5E St Cloud (W)
    

which have the minimum number of potential conference matchups, one. However, that matchup will occur if Miami defeats the lower seeded Wisconsin. It stands to reason that the matchup will be less likely to arise if it requires a victory by the lower seed. The only way to arrange this is to switch Miami and Ohio State, giving regions of

      West                                  East
1 Mich State (C)   1 .593 ND     | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617        | 2 Boston Univ (H)   0 .621   

3 Michigan (C)     3 .589 WiBCOS | 3 Miami (C)         3 .588 YaCgSC 
4 Wisconsin (W)    2 .580   BCOS | 4 Yale (E)          2 .552   CgSC
5 Boston Coll (H)  1 .572 __  OS | 5 Colgate (E)       1 .555 __  SC
6 Ohio State (C)   0 .541 ____   | 6 St Cloud (W)      0 .547 ____  
    

We can't quite use these seedings straight up; we need to switch the five and six seeds in each region to break up the first-round conference matchups, giving brackets of

5W Ohio State (C)                   6E Colgate (E)
4W Wisconsin (W)                    3E Miami (C)
      1W Mich State (C)    2E Boston Univ (H)

      2W North Dakota (W)  1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Michigan (C)                     4E Yale (E)
6W Boston Coll (H)                  5E St Cloud (W)
    

Which of these two brackets would the committee choose? Well, it probably depends on what their priorities are. For instance, if they're worried about attendance at the West regional, they might opt for the latter to stuff Yost Arena with Big Ten teams. But if that regional is going to sell out anyway, that's not a concern, and it's just a matter of weighing the reduced likelihood of a second-round matchup against rewarding Miami with a berth in their own region.

The Gory Details

If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way they did, here they are, but keep in mind that they're replaced every week.


Last Modified: 2011 October 9

Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org

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